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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Kyle Nelson won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1498

Elo1496

Bill AlgeovsKyle NelsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot · Saturday, March 30, 2024Atlantic City, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Kyle Nelson won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:00

Style matchupBill Algeo: Pressure fightervsKyle Nelson: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Bill Algeo wins(62.9%)

Actual result: Kyle Nelson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Bill Algeo at -298 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Bill Algeo

Red Corner

Kyle Nelson

Blue Corner

-298

(75%)

Vegas Odds

+240

(29%)

1498

Elo

1496

Age

Switch

Stance

Switch

6'0"

Height

5'11"

185.42 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Bill Algeo

oldest →

KOvs Herbert Burns · Jul 22

vs Andre Fili · Sep 22

SUBvs TJ Brown · Apr 23

vs Alexander Hernandez · Oct 23

KOvs Dooho Choi · Jul 24

latest

Kyle Nelson

oldest →

vs Blake Bilder · Jun 23

vs Fernando Padilla · Sep 23

KOvs Steve Garcia · Sep 24

vs Matt Frevola · Oct 25

KOvs Terrance McKinney · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Bill AlgeoMetricKyle Nelson

5.88

Strikes / min

3.60

4.38

Strikes absorbed / min

4.58

47%

Strike defense

53%

1.03

TDs / 15 min

1.18

55%

Takedown defense

66%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.50Δ 2.48 — meaningful gap-0.98

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Bill AlgeoKyle Nelson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Bill Algeo(10 fights)Kyle Nelson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +1.6|Blue -1.6

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -21.0|Blue +21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Bill AlgeoTargetKyle Nelson

By target zone

32% acc · 37%

Head

44% acc · 63%

100% acc · 37%

Body

75% acc · 19%

62% acc · 27%

Leg

100% acc · 19%

By position

55% acc · 100%

Distance

54% acc · 88%

0% acc

Clinch

67% acc · 13%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Bill Algeo rounds

even

Kyle Nelson rounds

Round 1Kyle Nelson edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control0:00

32Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:48Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

30 / 58

Sig Strikes

32 / 59

51%

Sig Str %

54%

44 / 73

Total Strikes

40 / 68

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:48

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Kyle Nelson	32 / 59	40 / 68	0 / 0	0
1	Bill Algeo	30 / 58	44 / 73	0 / 0	0

Bill Algeo

StanceSwitch

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights10

Kyle Nelson

StanceSwitch

Height71.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights11