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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Bill Algeo won · U-DEC R3

Elo1498

Elo1538

Bill AlgeovsJoanderson BritoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chikadze · Saturday, January 15, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Bill Algeo won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupBill Algeo: Pressure fightervsJoanderson Brito: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Bill Algeo wins(60.4%)

Actual result: Bill Algeo wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Bill Algeo at +135 American odds

+$135 profit

$235 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Bill Algeo (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Bill Algeo

Red Corner

Joanderson Brito

Blue Corner

+135

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-155

(61%)

1498

Elo

1538

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'8"

185.42 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Bill AlgeoL2 streak

oldest →

vs Andre Fili · Sep 22

SUBvs TJ Brown · Apr 23

vs Alexander Hernandez · Oct 23

KOvs Kyle Nelson · Mar 24

KOvs Dooho Choi · Jul 24

latest

Joanderson BritoW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Jack Shore · May 24

vs William Gomis · Sep 24

vs Pat Sabatini · Apr 25

vs Isaac Thomson · Dec 25

SUBvs Jordan Leavitt · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Bill AlgeoMetricJoanderson Brito

5.88

Strikes / min

2.43

4.38

Strikes absorbed / min

2.32

47%

Strike defense

44%

1.03

TDs / 15 min

3.38

55%

Takedown defense

47%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.50Δ 1.39 — meaningful gap+0.11

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Bill AlgeoJoanderson Brito

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Bill Algeo(10 fights)Joanderson Brito(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -40.5|Blue +40.5

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red -49.3|Blue +49.3

Grappler Score

Red -49.9|Blue +49.9

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Bill AlgeoTargetJoanderson Brito

By target zone

49% acc · 75%

Head

29% acc · 60%

45% acc · 17%

Body

56% acc · 13%

83% acc · 8%

Leg

92% acc · 28%

By position

38% acc · 54%

Distance

40% acc · 98%

74% acc · 29%

Clinch

17% acc · 3%

100% acc · 17%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Bill Algeo rounds

even

Joanderson Brito rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control1:12

2Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:59Control

Round 2Bill Algeo edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns1

Control2:20

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:25Control

Round 3Bill Algeo edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns1

Control1:30

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:30Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

59 / 118

Sig Strikes

40 / 104

54%

Sig Str %

32.7%

112 / 176

Total Strikes

46 / 110

2 / 2

TDs

2 / 4

100%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

5:02

Ctrl Time

4:54

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Joanderson Brito	2 / 14	5 / 17	2 / 2
1	Bill Algeo	11 / 17	28 / 37	0 / 0
2	Joanderson Brito	16 / 38	17 / 39	0 / 2
2	Bill Algeo	19 / 34	38 / 55	1 / 1
3	Joanderson Brito	22 / 52	24 / 54	0 / 0
3	Bill Algeo	29 / 67	46 / 84	1 / 1

Bill Algeo

StanceSwitch

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights10

Joanderson Brito

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights10