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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Bill Algeo won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1498

Elo1483

Bill AlgeovsHerbert BurnsUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · Saturday, July 16, 2022Elmont, New York, USA

Official fight result

Bill Algeo won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 1:50

Style matchupBill Algeo: Pressure fightervsHerbert Burns: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Bill Algeo wins(65.4%)

Actual result: Bill Algeo wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Bill Algeo at -210 American odds

+$48 profit

$148 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Herbert Burns enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Bill Algeo (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Bill Algeo

Red Corner

Herbert Burns

Blue Corner

-210

(68%)

Vegas Odds

+180

(36%)

1498

Elo

1483

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'9"

185.42 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Bill AlgeoL2 streak

oldest →

vs Andre Fili · Sep 22

SUBvs TJ Brown · Apr 23

vs Alexander Hernandez · Oct 23

KOvs Kyle Nelson · Mar 24

KOvs Dooho Choi · Jul 24

latest

Herbert BurnsL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Nate Landwehr · Jan 20

SUBvs Evan Dunham · Jun 20

KOvs Daniel Pineda · Aug 20

KOvs Julio Arce · Mar 24

KOvs Jack Jenkins · Aug 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Bill AlgeoMetricHerbert Burns

5.88

Strikes / min

1.86

4.38

Strikes absorbed / min

5.17

47%

Strike defense

41%

1.03

TDs / 15 min

2.94

55%

Takedown defense

66%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.50Δ 4.81 — meaningful gap-3.31

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Bill AlgeoHerbert Burns

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Bill Algeo(10 fights)Herbert Burns(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +14.8|Blue -14.8

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red -1.6|Blue +1.6

Layoff

Red -518.0|Blue +518.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Bill AlgeoTargetHerbert Burns

By target zone

75% acc · 75%

Head

75% acc · 60%

86% acc · 21%

Body

100% acc · 40%

100% acc · 4%

Leg

By position

50% acc · 7%

Distance

100% acc · 10%

100% acc · 7%

Clinch

100% acc · 30%

80% acc · 86%

Ground

75% acc · 60%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Bill Algeo rounds

even

Herbert Burns rounds

Round 1Bill Algeo edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns1

Control4:01

10Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:32Control

Round 2Bill Algeo edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control1:25

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

28 / 36

Sig Strikes

10 / 12

73%

Sig Str %

83%

81 / 104

Total Strikes

18 / 25

1 / 1

TDs

1 / 2

100%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

5:26

Ctrl Time

0:32

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Herbert Burns	10 / 12	18 / 25	1 / 1	2
1	Bill Algeo	24 / 30	65 / 84	1 / 1	0
2	Herbert Burns	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0
2	Bill Algeo	4 / 6	16 / 20	0 / 0	0

Bill Algeo

StanceSwitch

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights10

Herbert Burns

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights6