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Women's Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Bia Mesquita won · SUB R1
Elo1565
Elo1492

Bia MesquitavsMontse RendonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · Saturday, March 14, 2026Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Bia Mesquita won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:07

Style matchupBia Mesquita: WrestlervsMontse Rendon: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Bia Mesquita wins(82.7%)

Actual result: Bia Mesquita wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Bia Mesquita at -750 American odds

+$13 profit

$113 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Bia Mesquita has 23pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Montse Rendon has 85pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Bia Mesquita
Red Corner
VS
Montse Rendon
Blue Corner
-750
(88%)
Vegas Odds
+530
(16%)
1565
Elo
1492
35
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'4"
Height
5'8"
170.18 cm
Reach
172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 2 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Bia MesquitaW2 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs Irina Alekseeva · Oct 25
W
SUBvs Melissa Mullins · Jun 26
latest
Montse Rendon
oldest →
W
vs Alice Pereira · Sep 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Bia MesquitaMetricMontse Rendon
5.78
Strikes / min
2.95
0.64
Strikes absorbed / min
3.65
80%
Strike defense
57%
4.81
TDs / 15 min
1.91
0%
Takedown defense
85%
3.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+5.14Δ 5.84 — meaningful gap-0.70

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1515 vs 1516Strikes5.8 vs 3.0Takedowns4.8 vs 1.9Sub Atts3.20 vs 0.30Form1.0 vs 1.0
Bia MesquitaMontse Rendon

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801505153015551580← oldermost recent →
Bia Mesquita(3 fights)Montse Rendon(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +73.0|Blue -73.0
Recent Form
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Grappler Score
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Layoff
Red -28.0|Blue +28.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Bia MesquitaTargetMontse Rendon

By target zone

16
64% acc · 89%
Head
0
0% acc
1
100% acc · 6%
Body
0
0% acc
1
100% acc · 6%
Leg
0
0% acc

By position

6
100% acc · 33%
Distance
0
0% acc
0
0% acc
Clinch
0
12
60% acc · 67%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Bia Mesquita rounds
0
even
0
Montse Rendon rounds
Round 1Bia Mesquita edged it
Sig. strikes18
Takedowns1
Control1:46
0Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
18 / 27
Sig Strikes
0 / 8
66%
Sig Str %
0%
31 / 40
Total Strikes
0 / 8
1 / 1
TDs
0 / 0
100%
TD %
—
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
1:46
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Montse Rendon0 / 80 / 80 / 00
1Bia Mesquita18 / 2731 / 401 / 11

Bia Mesquita

StanceOrthodox
Height64.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights3

Montse Rendon

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights2