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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Bia Mesquita won · Submission R1

Elo1565

Elo1468

Bia MesquitavsMelissa MullinsUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · Saturday, June 20, 2026Las Vegas, USA

Official fight result

Bia Mesquita won

Submission · Round 1 · 3:16

Engine 7.0 was correct

Pre-fight pick: Bia Mesquita

Style matchupBia Mesquita: WrestlervsMelissa Mullins: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Bia Mesquita wins(59.0%)

Actual result: Bia Mesquita wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Bia Mesquita threatens submissions; Melissa Mullins has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Bia Mesquita has 28pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Melissa Mullins has 85pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Bia Mesquita

Red Corner

Melissa Mullins

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1565

Elo

1468

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'7"

170.18 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Bia MesquitaW2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Irina Alekseeva · Oct 25

SUBvs Montse Rendon · Mar 26

latest

Melissa Mullins

oldest →

vs Irina Alekseeva · Oct 23

KOvs Nora Cornolle · Apr 24

KOvs Klaudia Sygula · Nov 24

vs Daria Zhelezniakova · Jun 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Bia MesquitaMetricMelissa Mullins

5.78

Strikes / min

3.71

0.64

Strikes absorbed / min

4.39

80%

Strike defense

52%

4.81

TDs / 15 min

2.03

Takedown defense

85%

3.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+5.14Δ 5.82 — meaningful gap-0.68

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Bia Mesquita(3 fights)Melissa Mullins(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +97.1|Blue -97.1

Recent Form

Red +1.3|Blue -1.3

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Layoff

Red -266.0|Blue +266.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Bia MesquitaTargetMelissa Mullins

By target zone

29% acc · 67%

Head

35% acc · 80%

50% acc · 33%

Body

100% acc · 20%

0% acc

Leg

By position

30% acc · 100%

Distance

36% acc · 80%

Clinch

100% acc · 20%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Bia Mesquita rounds

even

Melissa Mullins rounds

Round 1Melissa Mullins edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:12

10Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:27Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

3 / 10

Sig Strikes

10 / 25

30%

Sig Str %

40%

28 / 37

Total Strikes

13 / 28

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 1

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:12

Ctrl Time

1:27

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Melissa Mullins	10 / 25	13 / 28	1 / 1	0
1	Bia Mesquita	3 / 10	28 / 37	0 / 0	1

The Pick

Vegas favorite

—

Odds

—

Market-implied probability

No market line yet

Model pick shown for research — not a betting edge.

No Vegas odds available yet.

No market line yet · model 55% (research) · vufc_v4_pure_sklearn_histgb_20260528_113051

🔒 Pick locked Jun 4, 2026, 3:29 PM UTC · never rewritten

Bia Mesquita

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights3

Melissa Mullins

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights5