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Women's Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Bia Mesquita won · SUB R2
Elo1565
Elo1466
Irina Alekseeva

Bia MesquitavsIrina AlekseevaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · Saturday, October 11, 2025Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Bia Mesquita won

SUB · Round 2 · 2:14

Model Prediction: Bia Mesquita wins(87.6%)

Actual result: Bia Mesquita wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Bia Mesquita at -600 American odds

+$17 profit

$117 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Bia Mesquita threatens submissions; Irina Alekseeva has lost 33% of fights by sub.
  • Bia Mesquita has 35pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Irina Alekseeva has 50pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Bia Mesquita
Red Corner
VS
Irina Alekseeva
Blue Corner
-600
(86%)
Vegas Odds
+450
(18%)
1565
Elo
1466
35
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'4"
Height
5'8"
170.18 cm
Reach
170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Bia MesquitaW2 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs Montse Rendon · Mar 26
W
SUBvs Melissa Mullins · Jun 26
latest
Irina AlekseevaL2 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs Stephanie Egger · Apr 23
L
vs Melissa Mullins · Oct 23
L
vs Klaudia Sygula · Jun 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Bia MesquitaMetricIrina Alekseeva
5.78
Strikes / min
3.42
0.64
Strikes absorbed / min
5.02
80%
Strike defense
45%
4.81
TDs / 15 min
0.38
0%
Takedown defense
50%
3.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+5.14Δ 6.74 — meaningful gap-1.60

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1483Strikes5.8 vs 3.4Takedowns4.8 vs 0.4Sub Atts3.20 vs 0.40Form0.0 vs -0.8
Bia MesquitaIrina Alekseeva

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14501483151515481580← oldermost recent →
Bia Mesquita(3 fights)Irina Alekseeva(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +99.1|Blue -99.1
Recent Form
Red +0.8|Blue -0.8
Striker Score
Red +49.6|Blue -49.6
Grappler Score
Red +49.7|Blue -49.7
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Bia MesquitaTargetIrina Alekseeva

By target zone

35
56% acc · 97%
Head
3
25% acc · 50%
0
Body
0
0% acc
1
100% acc · 3%
Leg
3
38% acc · 50%

By position

2
18% acc · 6%
Distance
6
26% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
34
65% acc · 94%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

2
Bia Mesquita rounds
0
even
0
Irina Alekseeva rounds
Round 1Bia Mesquita edged it
Sig. strikes36
Takedowns1
Control3:47
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Bia Mesquita edged it
Sig. strikes0
Takedowns1
Control1:06
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
36 / 63
Sig Strikes
6 / 23
31%
Sig Str %
26.5%
61 / 98
Total Strikes
17 / 34
2 / 3
TDs
0 / 0
75%
TD %
—
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
4:53
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Irina Alekseeva3 / 133 / 130 / 00
1Bia Mesquita36 / 5856 / 881 / 10
2Irina Alekseeva3 / 1014 / 210 / 00
2Bia Mesquita0 / 55 / 101 / 21

Bia Mesquita

StanceOrthodox
Height64.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights3

Irina Alekseeva

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights4