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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Shamil Gaziev won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1527

Elo1482

Martin BudayvsShamil GazievUFC Prediction Result

UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · Saturday, December 16, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Shamil Gaziev won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 0:56

Style matchupMartin Buday: Pressure fightervsShamil Gaziev: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Martin Buday wins(70.5%)

Actual result: Shamil Gaziev wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Martin Buday enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Martin Buday has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Martin Buday

Red Corner

Shamil Gaziev

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1527

Elo

1482

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'4"

195.58 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Martin BudayW5 streak

oldest →

vs Jake Collier · Apr 23

SUBvs Josh Parisian · Aug 23

vs Andrei Arlovski · Jun 24

vs Uran Satybaldiev · Apr 25

vs Marcus Buchecha · Jul 25

latest

Shamil GazievL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Mar 24

vs Don'Tale Mayes · Aug 24

KOvs Thomas Petersen · Feb 25

KOvs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Nov 25

KOvs Brando Pericic · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Martin BudayMetricShamil Gaziev

4.39

Strikes / min

2.94

4.49

Strikes absorbed / min

4.92

55%

Strike defense

45%

0.15

TDs / 15 min

1.06

93%

Takedown defense

83%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.10Δ 1.88 — meaningful gap-1.98

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Martin BudayShamil Gaziev

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Martin Buday(8 fights)Shamil Gaziev(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +45.1|Blue -45.1

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Grappler Score

Red -49.9|Blue +49.9

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Martin BudayTargetShamil Gaziev

By target zone

42% acc · 100%

Head

44% acc · 71%

0% acc

Body

74% acc · 29%

Leg

By position

47% acc · 100%

Distance

48% acc · 71%

0% acc

Clinch

50% acc · 10%

Ground

60% acc · 18%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Martin Buday rounds

even

Shamil Gaziev rounds

Round 1Shamil Gaziev edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:20

36Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:08Control

Round 2Shamil Gaziev edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:00

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:10Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

8 / 20

Sig Strikes

49 / 98

37%

Sig Str %

50.5%

13 / 26

Total Strikes

60 / 114

0 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:20

Ctrl Time

2:18

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Shamil Gaziev	36 / 73	45 / 87	0 / 0
1	Martin Buday	7 / 17	12 / 23	0 / 2
2	Shamil Gaziev	13 / 25	15 / 27	0 / 0
2	Martin Buday	1 / 3	1 / 3	0 / 0

Martin Buday

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights8

Shamil Gaziev

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights5