Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Ricky Simon has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Mario Bautista (52.9%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Ricky Simon
oldest →L
vs Vinicius Oliveira · Jun 24W
KOvs Javid Basharat · Feb 25W
vs Cameron Smotherman · Jun 25L
vs Raoni Barcelos · Nov 25D
vs Adrian Yanez · Mar 26 Mario BautistaW2 streak
oldest →L
vs Umar Nurmagomedov · Oct 25W
SUBvs Vinicius Oliveira · Feb 26W
DECvs Cory Sandhagen · Jul 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Ricky SimonMetricMario Bautista
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.87Δ 2.19 — meaningful gap+1.32
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Ricky SimonMario Bautista
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Ricky Simon(10 fights)Mario Bautista(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -53.8|Blue +53.8
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -1.0|Blue +1.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +112.0|Blue -112.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Ricky SimonTargetMario Bautista
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Mario Bautista edged it
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns1
Control1:31
18Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Mario Bautista edged it
Sig. strikes21
Takedowns0
Control0:28
38Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Mario Bautista edged it
Sig. strikes15
Takedowns1
Control1:01
56Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:14Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
