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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Fares Ziam won · S-DEC R3

Elo1488

Elo1528

Claudio PuellesvsFares ZiamUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · Saturday, February 24, 2024Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico

Official fight result

Fares Ziam won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupClaudio Puelles: WrestlervsFares Ziam: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Claudio Puelles wins(50.4%)

Actual result: Fares Ziam wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Claudio Puelles at +180 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Claudio Puelles threatens submissions; Fares Ziam has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Fares Ziam has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Claudio Puelles (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Claudio Puelles

Red Corner

Fares Ziam

Blue Corner

+180

(36%)

Vegas Odds

-218

(69%)

1488

Elo

1528

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

6'1"

182.88 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Claudio PuellesL2 streak

oldest →

vs Jordan Leavitt · Jun 21

SUBvs Chris Gruetzemacher · Dec 21

SUBvs Clay Guida · Apr 22

KOvs Dan Hooker · Nov 22

vs Joaquim Silva · Sep 25

latest

Fares Ziam

oldest →

vs Jai Herbert · Jul 23

KOvs Matt Frevola · Sep 24

vs Mike Davis · Feb 25

KOvs Nazim Sadykhov · Dec 25

DECvs Tom Nolan · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Claudio PuellesMetricFares Ziam

1.54

Strikes / min

2.87

2.62

Strikes absorbed / min

1.53

48%

Strike defense

65%

3.29

TDs / 15 min

1.73

60%

Takedown defense

71%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.08Δ 2.42 — meaningful gap+1.34

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Claudio PuellesFares Ziam

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Claudio Puelles(8 fights)Fares Ziam(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -39.6|Blue +39.6

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +252.0|Blue -252.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Claudio PuellesTargetFares Ziam

By target zone

20% acc · 25%

Head

61% acc · 74%

75% acc · 75%

Body

86% acc · 19%

Leg

67% acc · 6%

By position

38% acc · 75%

Distance

33% acc · 16%

100% acc · 25%

Clinch

67% acc · 6%

Ground

80% acc · 77%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Claudio Puelles rounds

even

Fares Ziam rounds

Round 1Claudio Puelles edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns3

Control3:21

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:38Control

Round 2Fares Ziam edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns1

Control1:39

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:06Control

Round 3Claudio Puelles edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns3

Control2:14

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:46Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

4 / 9

Sig Strikes

31 / 48

50%

Sig Str %

64.7%

17 / 27

Total Strikes

58 / 82

7 / 13

TDs

0 / 0

51%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

7:14

Ctrl Time

4:30

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Fares Ziam	9 / 17	18 / 26	0 / 0	0
1	Claudio Puelles	2 / 4	6 / 9	3 / 5	0
2	Fares Ziam	14 / 20	23 / 32	0 / 0	0
2	Claudio Puelles	0 / 3	4 / 11	1 / 3	0
3	Fares Ziam	8 / 11	17 / 24	0 / 0	1
3	Claudio Puelles	2 / 2	7 / 7	3 / 5	0

Claudio Puelles

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights8

Fares Ziam

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights11