Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Paul Craig enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Paul Craig threatens submissions; Nikita Krylov has lost 40% of fights by sub.
- Nikita Krylov has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Nikita Krylov
oldest →W
SUBvs Ryan Spann · Mar 23L
KOvs Dominick Reyes · Apr 25L
KOvs Bogdan Guskov · Jul 25W
KOvs Modestas Bukauskas · Jan 26L
KOvs Robert Whittaker · Jul 26 Paul CraigL5 streak
oldest →L
SUBvs Brendan Allen · Nov 23L
KOvs Caio Borralho · May 24L
vs Rodolfo Bellato · Jun 25L
KOvs Modestas Bukauskas · Sep 25 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Nikita KrylovMetricPaul Craig
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.77Δ 2.31 — meaningful gap-0.54
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Nikita KrylovPaul Craig
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Nikita Krylov(10 fights)Paul Craig(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +12.5|Blue -12.5
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -1.3|Blue +1.3
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +105.0|Blue -105.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Nikita KrylovTargetPaul Craig
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Nikita Krylov edged it
Sig. strikes19
Takedowns1
Control3:49
2Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:02Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.
