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Women's Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Raquel Pennington won · S-DEC R3

Elo1409

Elo1504

Bethe CorreiavsRaquel PenningtonUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Teixeira vs Evans · Saturday, April 16, 2016Tampa, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Raquel Pennington won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupBethe Correia: Pressure fightervsRaquel Pennington: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Bethe Correia wins(64.6%)

Actual result: Raquel Pennington wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Bethe Correia at +180 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Bethe Correia has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Bethe Correia

Red Corner

Raquel Pennington

Blue Corner

+180

(36%)

Vegas Odds

-220

(69%)

1409

Elo

1504

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'7"

162.56 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Bethe CorreiaL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Holly Holm · Jun 17

SUBvs Irene Aldana · May 19

vs Sijara Eubanks · Sep 19

vs Pannie Kianzad · Jul 20

vs Karol Rosa · Oct 21

latest

Raquel Pennington

oldest →

SUBvs Macy Chiasson · Dec 21

vs Aspen Ladd · Apr 22

vs Ketlen Vieira · Jan 23

vs Mayra Bueno Silva · Jan 24

vs Julianna Pena · Oct 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Bethe CorreiaMetricRaquel Pennington

4.37

Strikes / min

4.10

4.93

Strikes absorbed / min

3.32

56%

Strike defense

61%

0.39

TDs / 15 min

0.83

85%

Takedown defense

62%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.56Δ 1.34 — meaningful gap+0.78

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Bethe CorreiaRaquel Pennington

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Bethe Correia(10 fights)Raquel Pennington(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -95.6|Blue +95.6

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red +35.0|Blue -35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Bethe CorreiaTargetRaquel Pennington

By target zone

33% acc · 68%

Head

47% acc · 60%

57% acc · 20%

Body

85% acc · 29%

73% acc · 12%

Leg

100% acc · 11%

By position

33% acc · 71%

Distance

52% acc · 61%

63% acc · 29%

Clinch

71% acc · 39%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Bethe Correia rounds

even

Raquel Pennington rounds

Round 1Bethe Correia edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:27

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:09Control

Round 2Raquel Pennington edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:39

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:18Control

Round 3Raquel Pennington edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:59

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:36Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

66 / 171

Sig Strikes

75 / 130

38.3%

Sig Str %

57%

99 / 209

Total Strikes

84 / 139

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 4

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:05

Ctrl Time

1:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Raquel Pennington	16 / 29	17 / 30	0 / 2
1	Bethe Correia	18 / 56	27 / 67	0 / 0
2	Raquel Pennington	28 / 49	29 / 50	0 / 1
2	Bethe Correia	25 / 62	35 / 73	0 / 0
3	Raquel Pennington	31 / 52	38 / 59	0 / 1
3	Bethe Correia	23 / 53	37 / 69	0 / 1

Bethe Correia

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights11

Raquel Pennington

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights19