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Women's Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Karol Rosa won · U-DEC R3

Elo1409

Elo1493

Bethe CorreiavsKarol RosaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker · Saturday, October 2, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Karol Rosa won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupBethe Correia: Pressure fightervsKarol Rosa: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Karol Rosa wins(80.1%)

Actual result: Karol Rosa wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Karol Rosa at -720 American odds

+$14 profit

$114 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Bethe Correia has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Bethe Correia

Red Corner

Karol Rosa

Blue Corner

+500

(17%)

Vegas Odds

-720

(88%)

1409

Elo

1493

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'5"

162.56 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Bethe Correia

oldest →

vs Jessica Eye · Sep 16

KOvs Holly Holm · Jun 17

SUBvs Irene Aldana · May 19

vs Sijara Eubanks · Sep 19

vs Pannie Kianzad · Jul 20

latest

Karol Rosa

oldest →

vs Irene Aldana · Dec 23

vs Pannie Kianzad · Aug 24

vs Ailin Perez · Jan 25

vs Nora Cornolle · Aug 25

DECvs Luana Santos · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Bethe CorreiaMetricKarol Rosa

4.37

Strikes / min

5.88

4.93

Strikes absorbed / min

4.59

56%

Strike defense

49%

0.39

TDs / 15 min

1.17

85%

Takedown defense

70%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.56Δ 1.85 — meaningful gap+1.29

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Bethe CorreiaKarol Rosa

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Bethe Correia(10 fights)Karol Rosa(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -84.0|Blue +84.0

Recent Form

Red -1.5|Blue +1.5

Striker Score

Red +2.0|Blue -2.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -14.0|Blue +14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Bethe CorreiaTargetKarol Rosa

By target zone

20% acc · 29%

Head

49% acc · 56%

76% acc · 61%

Body

100% acc · 28%

100% acc · 10%

Leg

91% acc · 16%

By position

41% acc · 92%

Distance

102

59% acc · 82%

71% acc · 8%

Clinch

85% acc · 18%

Ground

100% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Bethe Correia rounds

even

Karol Rosa rounds

Round 1Karol Rosa edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:00

30Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:32Control

Round 2Karol Rosa edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:00

48Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:40Control

Round 3Karol Rosa edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:00

47Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:38Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

62 / 147

Sig Strikes

125 / 199

41.3%

Sig Str %

62%

85 / 171

Total Strikes

145 / 219

0 / 2

TDs

0 / 2

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

2:50

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Karol Rosa	30 / 51	37 / 58	0 / 1
1	Bethe Correia	18 / 43	24 / 49	0 / 0
2	Karol Rosa	48 / 71	56 / 79	0 / 0
2	Bethe Correia	18 / 44	32 / 59	0 / 0
3	Karol Rosa	47 / 77	52 / 82	0 / 1
3	Bethe Correia	26 / 60	29 / 63	0 / 2

Bethe Correia

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights11

Karol Rosa

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights12