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Lightweight
5 Rounds
Title Bout
Benson Henderson won · U-DEC R5
Elo1490
Elo1496
Nate Diaz

Benson HendersonvsNate DiazUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz · Saturday, December 8, 2012Seattle, Washington, USA

Official fight result

Benson Henderson won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupBenson Henderson: WrestlervsNate Diaz: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Benson Henderson wins(75.3%)

Actual result: Benson Henderson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Benson Henderson at -225 American odds

+$44 profit

$144 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Nate Diaz threatens submissions; Benson Henderson has lost 33% of fights by sub.
  • Benson Henderson has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Benson Henderson has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Nate Diaz has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Benson Henderson
Red Corner
VS
Nate Diaz
Blue Corner
-225
(69%)
Vegas Odds
+185
(35%)
1490
Elo
1496
42
Age
41
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
5'9"
Height
6'0"
177.8 cm
Reach
193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Benson HendersonW2 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs Rustam Khabilov · Jun 14
L
KOvs Rafael Dos Anjos · Aug 14
L
vs Donald Cerrone · Jan 15
W
SUBvs Brandon Thatch · Feb 15
W
vs Jorge Masvidal · Nov 15
latest
Nate Diaz
oldest →
L
vs Conor McGregor · Aug 16
W
vs Anthony Pettis · Aug 19
L
KOvs Jorge Masvidal · Nov 19
L
vs Leon Edwards · Jun 21
W
SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Sep 22
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Benson HendersonMetricNate Diaz
2.93
Strikes / min
4.57
1.79
Strikes absorbed / min
3.77
63%
Strike defense
52%
2.40
TDs / 15 min
1.05
63%
Takedown defense
41%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
1.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.14evenly matched on net striking+0.80

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1594 vs 1557Strikes62.4 vs 44.8Takedowns2.6 vs 0.9Sub Atts1.20 vs 1.25Form1.0 vs 0.6
Benson HendersonNate Diaz

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Benson Henderson(10 fights)Nate Diaz(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -5.8|Blue +5.8
Recent Form
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Striker Score
Red +0.9|Blue -0.9
Grappler Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff
Red -98.0|Blue +98.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Benson HendersonTargetNate Diaz

By target zone

63
50% acc · 51%
Head
8
15% acc · 27%
29
88% acc · 23%
Body
12
67% acc · 40%
32
82% acc · 26%
Leg
10
100% acc · 33%

By position

26
51% acc · 21%
Distance
5
10% acc · 17%
31
84% acc · 25%
Clinch
25
81% acc · 83%
67
61% acc · 54%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

5
Benson Henderson rounds
0
even
0
Nate Diaz rounds
Round 1Benson Henderson edged it
Sig. strikes27
Takedowns1
Control2:37
15Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:38Control
Round 2Benson Henderson edged it
Sig. strikes28
Takedowns1
Control2:37
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:02Control
Round 3Benson Henderson edged it
Sig. strikes21
Takedowns2
Control3:33
Knockdowns1
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:02Control
0Knockdowns
Round 4Benson Henderson edged it
Sig. strikes24
Takedowns3
Control4:05
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 5Benson Henderson edged it
Sig. strikes24
Takedowns1
Control4:06
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:02Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
124 / 198
Sig Strikes
30 / 83
63.6%
Sig Str %
32.2%
183 / 259
Total Strikes
95 / 160
8 / 12
TDs
0 / 6
69.8%
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
2
0
Rev
0
16:58
Ctrl Time
0:44

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Nate Diaz15 / 2837 / 500 / 20
1Benson Henderson27 / 3239 / 451 / 30
2Nate Diaz6 / 2421 / 420 / 20
2Benson Henderson28 / 4736 / 551 / 10
3Nate Diaz2 / 1311 / 280 / 12
3Benson Henderson21 / 3923 / 412 / 30
4Benson Henderson24 / 3449 / 603 / 30
4Nate Diaz1 / 75 / 120 / 00
5Nate Diaz6 / 1121 / 280 / 10
5Benson Henderson24 / 4636 / 581 / 20

Benson Henderson

StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights14

Nate Diaz

StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights18