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Lightweight
5 Rounds
Benson Henderson won · S-DEC R5
Elo1490
Elo1355
Josh Thomson

Benson HendersonvsJosh ThomsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson · Saturday, January 25, 2014Chicago, Illinois, USA

Official fight result

Benson Henderson won

S-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupBenson Henderson: WrestlervsJosh Thomson: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Benson Henderson wins(63.1%)

Actual result: Benson Henderson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Benson Henderson at -310 American odds

+$32 profit

$132 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Stance matchup historically favors Benson Henderson (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Benson Henderson
Red Corner
VS
Josh Thomson
Blue Corner
-310
(76%)
Vegas Odds
+280
(26%)
1490
Elo
1355
42
Age
47
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'10"
177.8 cm
Reach
180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Benson HendersonW2 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs Rustam Khabilov · Jun 14
L
KOvs Rafael Dos Anjos · Aug 14
L
vs Donald Cerrone · Jan 15
W
SUBvs Brandon Thatch · Feb 15
W
vs Jorge Masvidal · Nov 15
latest
Josh ThomsonL2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Nate Diaz · Apr 13
L
vs Bobby Green · Jul 14
L
vs Tony Ferguson · Jul 15
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Benson HendersonMetricJosh Thomson
2.93
Strikes / min
2.59
1.79
Strikes absorbed / min
2.12
63%
Strike defense
64%
2.40
TDs / 15 min
1.92
63%
Takedown defense
54%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
1.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.14evenly matched on net striking+0.47

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1601 vs 1521Strikes64.4 vs 25.0Takedowns2.6 vs 1.5Sub Atts0.75 vs 0.00Form0.3 vs 1.0
Benson HendersonJosh Thomson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Benson Henderson(10 fights)Josh Thomson(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +135.5|Blue -135.5
Recent Form
Red -0.7|Blue +0.7
Striker Score
Red +1.9|Blue -1.9
Grappler Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff
Red -133.0|Blue +133.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Benson HendersonTargetJosh Thomson

By target zone

16
33% acc · 35%
Head
5
15% acc · 26%
21
75% acc · 46%
Body
8
47% acc · 42%
9
64% acc · 20%
Leg
6
75% acc · 32%

By position

32
44% acc · 70%
Distance
14
33% acc · 74%
13
76% acc · 28%
Clinch
5
45% acc · 26%
1
100% acc · 2%
Ground
0
0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

3
Benson Henderson rounds
0
even
2
Josh Thomson rounds
Round 1Josh Thomson edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns1
Control1:01
1Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
3:12Control
Round 2Benson Henderson edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns0
Control1:14
6Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:47Control
Round 3Benson Henderson edged it
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns2
Control1:29
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:30Control
Round 4Josh Thomson edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns1
Control1:00
2Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
2:41Control
Round 5Benson Henderson edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns0
Control0:17
8Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:41Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
46 / 91
Sig Strikes
19 / 58
45.8%
Sig Str %
33.6%
114 / 166
Total Strikes
33 / 75
4 / 4
TDs
4 / 11
100%
TD %
40%
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
5:01
Ctrl Time
7:51

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Josh Thomson1 / 27 / 101 / 20
1Benson Henderson1 / 68 / 151 / 11
2Josh Thomson6 / 157 / 161 / 20
2Benson Henderson11 / 2418 / 320 / 00
3Josh Thomson2 / 102 / 100 / 30
3Benson Henderson17 / 3030 / 442 / 20
4Benson Henderson6 / 1041 / 451 / 10
4Josh Thomson2 / 118 / 182 / 20
5Josh Thomson8 / 209 / 210 / 20
5Benson Henderson11 / 2117 / 300 / 00

Benson Henderson

StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights14

Josh Thomson

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights4