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Lightweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Benson Henderson won · S-DEC R5

Elo1490

Elo1374

Benson HendersonvsGilbert MelendezUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melendez · Saturday, April 20, 2013San Jose, California, USA

Official fight result

Benson Henderson won

S-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupBenson Henderson: WrestlervsGilbert Melendez: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Benson Henderson wins(92.0%)

Actual result: Benson Henderson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Benson Henderson at -310 American odds

+$32 profit

$132 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gilbert Melendez enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Benson Henderson (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Benson Henderson

Red Corner

Gilbert Melendez

Blue Corner

-310

(76%)

Vegas Odds

+280

(26%)

1490

Elo

1374

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'9"

177.8 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Benson HendersonW2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Rustam Khabilov · Jun 14

KOvs Rafael Dos Anjos · Aug 14

vs Donald Cerrone · Jan 15

SUBvs Brandon Thatch · Feb 15

vs Jorge Masvidal · Nov 15

latest

Gilbert MelendezL5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Anthony Pettis · Dec 14

vs Eddie Alvarez · Jun 15

vs Edson Barboza · Jul 16

vs Jeremy Stephens · Sep 17

vs Arnold Allen · Jul 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Benson HendersonMetricGilbert Melendez

2.93

Strikes / min

3.44

1.79

Strikes absorbed / min

2.53

63%

Strike defense

63%

2.40

TDs / 15 min

1.64

63%

Takedown defense

71%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.14evenly matched on net striking+0.91

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Benson HendersonGilbert Melendez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Benson Henderson(10 fights)Gilbert Melendez(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +116.3|Blue -116.3

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -46.9|Blue +46.9

Grappler Score

Red -49.3|Blue +49.3

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Benson HendersonTargetGilbert Melendez

By target zone

18% acc · 29%

Head

10% acc · 37%

91% acc · 29%

Body

80% acc · 37%

82% acc · 41%

Leg

69% acc · 26%

By position

39% acc · 85%

Distance

20% acc · 79%

62% acc · 12%

Clinch

57% acc · 19%

67% acc · 3%

Ground

33% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Benson Henderson rounds

even

Gilbert Melendez rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:38

7Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:44Control

Round 2Benson Henderson edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:00

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Benson Henderson edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:45

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 4Benson Henderson edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:05

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

Round 5Benson Henderson edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:00

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

68 / 166

Sig Strikes

43 / 191

42.4%

Sig Str %

22.6%

92 / 191

Total Strikes

56 / 204

0 / 4

TDs

1 / 1

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

1:28

Ctrl Time

0:52

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Gilbert Melendez	7 / 29	10 / 32	1 / 1
1	Benson Henderson	9 / 17	23 / 32	0 / 0
2	Gilbert Melendez	13 / 47	15 / 49	0 / 0
2	Benson Henderson	15 / 41	15 / 41	0 / 1
3	Gilbert Melendez	7 / 32	13 / 38	0 / 0
3	Benson Henderson	15 / 29	17 / 31	0 / 1
4	Benson Henderson	15 / 38	23 / 46	0 / 2
4	Gilbert Melendez	8 / 30	10 / 32	0 / 0
5	Gilbert Melendez	8 / 53	8 / 53	0 / 0
5	Benson Henderson	14 / 41	14 / 41	0 / 0

Benson Henderson

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights14

Gilbert Melendez

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights7