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Welterweight

5 Rounds

Benson Henderson won · SUB R4

Elo1490

Elo1359

Benson HendersonvsBrandon ThatchUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Thatch · Saturday, February 14, 2015Broomfield, Colorado, USA

Official fight result

Benson Henderson won

SUB · Round 4 · 3:58

Model Prediction: Benson Henderson wins(69.0%)

Actual result: Benson Henderson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Benson Henderson at +155 American odds

+$155 profit

$255 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Brandon Thatch enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Benson Henderson has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Brandon Thatch (54.1%).
Brandon Thatch has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Benson Henderson

Red Corner

Brandon Thatch

Blue Corner

+155

(39%)

Vegas Odds

-165

(62%)

1490

Elo

1359

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Switch

5'9"

Height

6'2"

177.8 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Benson Henderson

oldest →

vs Josh Thomson · Jan 14

SUBvs Rustam Khabilov · Jun 14

KOvs Rafael Dos Anjos · Aug 14

vs Donald Cerrone · Jan 15

vs Jorge Masvidal · Nov 15

latest

Brandon ThatchL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Justin Edwards · Aug 13

KOvs Paulo Thiago · Nov 13

SUBvs Gunnar Nelson · Jul 15

SUBvs Siyar Bahadurzada · Mar 16

SUBvs Niko Price · Dec 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Benson HendersonMetricBrandon Thatch

2.93

Strikes / min

2.70

1.79

Strikes absorbed / min

3.63

63%

Strike defense

52%

2.40

TDs / 15 min

1.36

63%

Takedown defense

50%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.14Δ 2.07 — meaningful gap-0.93

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Benson HendersonBrandon Thatch

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Benson Henderson(10 fights)Brandon Thatch(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +131.6|Blue -131.6

Recent Form

Red -1.3|Blue +1.3

Striker Score

Red +2.8|Blue -2.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -435.0|Blue +435.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Benson HendersonTargetBrandon Thatch

By target zone

24% acc · 46%

Head

21% acc · 52%

69% acc · 32%

Body

61% acc · 32%

68% acc · 23%

Leg

78% acc · 16%

By position

35% acc · 89%

Distance

28% acc · 84%

33% acc · 2%

Clinch

70% acc · 16%

100% acc · 9%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Benson Henderson rounds

even

Brandon Thatch rounds

Round 1Benson Henderson edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:00

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Brandon Thatch edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:00

17Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

0:15Control

Round 3Benson Henderson edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control2:59

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Round 4Benson Henderson edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns2

Control1:35

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

57 / 154

Sig Strikes

44 / 143

36.5%

Sig Str %

30.5%

85 / 187

Total Strikes

51 / 151

3 / 5

TDs

2 / 3

58%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

4:34

Ctrl Time

0:17

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Brandon Thatch	11 / 31	11 / 31	0 / 0	0
1	Benson Henderson	17 / 43	17 / 43	0 / 0	0
2	Benson Henderson	15 / 46	16 / 47	0 / 0	0
2	Brandon Thatch	17 / 54	22 / 60	2 / 2	0
3	Brandon Thatch	8 / 24	9 / 25	0 / 1	0
3	Benson Henderson	10 / 29	31 / 53	1 / 2	0
4	Brandon Thatch	8 / 34	9 / 35	0 / 0	0
4	Benson Henderson	15 / 36	21 / 44	2 / 3	1

Benson Henderson

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights14

Brandon Thatch

StanceSwitch

Height74.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights6