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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Benoit Saint Denis won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1546

Benoit Saint Denis editorial illustration

Elo1486

Benoit Saint DenisvsThiago MoisesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac · Saturday, September 2, 2023Paris, Ile-de-France, France

Official fight result

Benoit Saint Denis won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:44

Style matchupBenoit Saint Denis: WrestlervsThiago Moises: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Benoit Saint Denis wins(86.5%)

Actual result: Benoit Saint Denis wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Benoit Saint Denis at -198 American odds

+$51 profit

$151 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Thiago Moises has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Benoit Saint Denis has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Benoit Saint Denis (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Benoit Saint Denis

Red Corner

Thiago Moises

Blue Corner

-198

(66%)

Vegas Odds

+164

(38%)

1546

Elo

1486

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'9"

185.42 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Benoit Saint Denis

oldest →

SUBvs Kyle Prepolec · May 25

SUBvs Mauricio Ruffy · Sep 25

KOvs Beneil Dariush · Nov 25

KOvs Dan Hooker · Jan 26

SUBvs Paddy Pimblett · Jul 26

latest

Thiago MoisesL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Mitch Ramirez · Mar 24

vs Ludovit Klein · Jun 24

vs Trey Ogden · Jan 25

KOvs Jared Gordon · May 25

DECvs Gauge Young · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Benoit Saint DenisMetricThiago Moises

5.62

Strikes / min

2.52

4.09

Strikes absorbed / min

4.40

42%

Strike defense

52%

4.19

TDs / 15 min

1.37

72%

Takedown defense

52%

1.80

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.53Δ 3.41 — meaningful gap-1.88

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Benoit Saint DenisThiago Moises

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Benoit Saint Denis(10 fights)Thiago Moises(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +60.3|Blue -60.3

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red -161.0|Blue +161.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Benoit Saint DenisTargetThiago Moises

By target zone

40% acc · 49%

Head

26% acc · 50%

82% acc · 28%

Body

71% acc · 42%

96% acc · 24%

Leg

100% acc · 8%

By position

59% acc · 42%

Distance

39% acc · 96%

71% acc · 10%

Clinch

33% acc · 4%

51% acc · 49%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Benoit Saint Denis rounds

even

Thiago Moises rounds

Round 1Benoit Saint Denis edged it

Sig. strikes41

Takedowns1

Control2:18

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Benoit Saint Denis edged it

Sig. strikes60

Takedowns4

Control3:02

6Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:14Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

101 / 182

Sig Strikes

24 / 62

55%

Sig Str %

37.5%

123 / 210

Total Strikes

27 / 67

5 / 9

TDs

1 / 3

49.5%

TD %

25%

Sub Att

Rev

5:20

Ctrl Time

0:14

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Thiago Moises	18 / 45	19 / 47	0 / 1	1
1	Benoit Saint Denis	41 / 77	57 / 95	1 / 3	0
2	Thiago Moises	6 / 17	8 / 20	1 / 2	0
2	Benoit Saint Denis	60 / 105	66 / 115	4 / 6	0

Benoit Saint Denis

StanceSouthpaw

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights13

Thiago Moises

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights15