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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Paddy Pimblett won · Submission R1

Elo1546

Benoit Saint Denis editorial illustration

Elo1541

Benoit Saint DenisvsPaddy PimblettUFC Prediction Result

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · Saturday, July 11, 2026Las Vegas, USA

Official fight result

Paddy Pimblett won

Submission · Round 1 · 0:52

Engine 7.0 was wrong

Pre-fight pick: Benoit Saint Denis

If $100 had been placed on our pre-fight pick

Benoit Saint Denis at -139 American odds · hypothetical only

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Style matchupBenoit Saint Denis: WrestlervsPaddy Pimblett: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Benoit Saint Denis wins(53.8%)

Actual result: Paddy Pimblett wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Benoit Saint Denis enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Benoit Saint Denis has 28pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Benoit Saint Denis

Red Corner

Paddy Pimblett

Blue Corner

-139

(58%)

Vegas Odds

+116

(46%)

1546

Elo

1541

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'10"

185.42 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Benoit Saint DenisW4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Renato Moicano · Sep 24

SUBvs Kyle Prepolec · May 25

SUBvs Mauricio Ruffy · Sep 25

KOvs Beneil Dariush · Nov 25

KOvs Dan Hooker · Jan 26

latest

Paddy Pimblett

oldest →

vs Jared Gordon · Dec 22

vs Tony Ferguson · Dec 23

SUBvs King Green · Jul 24

KOvs Michael Chandler · Apr 25

vs Justin Gaethje · Jan 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Benoit Saint DenisMetricPaddy Pimblett

5.62

Strikes / min

5.49

4.09

Strikes absorbed / min

3.89

42%

Strike defense

42%

4.19

TDs / 15 min

0.69

72%

Takedown defense

44%

1.80

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.53evenly matched on net striking+1.60

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Benoit Saint Denis(10 fights)Paddy Pimblett(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +4.6|Blue -4.6

Recent Form

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red -7.0|Blue +7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Benoit Saint DenisTargetPaddy Pimblett

By target zone

33% acc · 100%

Head

67% acc · 50%

Body

Leg

100% acc · 50%

By position

33% acc · 100%

Distance

80% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Benoit Saint Denis rounds

even

Paddy Pimblett rounds

Round 1Paddy Pimblett edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:04

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:37Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1 / 3

Sig Strikes

4 / 5

33%

Sig Str %

80%

1 / 3

Total Strikes

4 / 5

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:04

Ctrl Time

0:37

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Paddy Pimblett	4 / 5	4 / 5	0 / 0	1
1	Benoit Saint Denis	1 / 3	1 / 3	0 / 1	0

The Pick

Vegas favorite

Benoit Saint Denis

Odds

-139

Market-implied probability

Benoit Saint Denis 56%

Model pick shown for research — not a betting edge.

$100 bet returns

Benoit Saint Denis (model pick · research)$172

Paddy Pimblett$216

56% market-implied · model 53% (research) · vufc_v5_pure_lightgbm_20260712_125850

🔒 Pick locked Jul 12, 2026, 1:00 PM UTC at -139 · never rewritten

Benoit Saint Denis

StanceSouthpaw

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights13

Paddy Pimblett

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights9