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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Benoit Saint Denis won · SUB R2

Elo1546

Benoit Saint Denis editorial illustration

Elo1553

Benoit Saint DenisvsMauricio RuffyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · Saturday, September 6, 2025Paris, Ile-de-France, France

Official fight result

Benoit Saint Denis won

SUB · Round 2 · 2:56

Style matchupBenoit Saint Denis: WrestlervsMauricio Ruffy: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Benoit Saint Denis wins(77.3%)

Actual result: Benoit Saint Denis wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Benoit Saint Denis at +146 American odds

+$146 profit

$246 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mauricio Ruffy enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Mauricio Ruffy is a KO finisher (80% of wins). Benoit Saint Denis has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Mauricio Ruffy has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Benoit Saint Denis (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Benoit Saint Denis

Red Corner

Mauricio Ruffy

Blue Corner

+146

(41%)

Vegas Odds

-174

(64%)

1546

Elo

1553

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'11"

185.42 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Benoit Saint Denis

oldest →

KOvs Renato Moicano · Sep 24

SUBvs Kyle Prepolec · May 25

KOvs Beneil Dariush · Nov 25

KOvs Dan Hooker · Jan 26

SUBvs Paddy Pimblett · Jul 26

latest

Mauricio RuffyW5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Jamie Mullarkey · May 24

vs James Llontop · Nov 24

KOvs King Green · Mar 25

KOvs Rafael Fiziev · Jan 26

KOvs Michael Chandler · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Benoit Saint DenisMetricMauricio Ruffy

5.62

Strikes / min

4.19

4.09

Strikes absorbed / min

4.09

42%

Strike defense

58%

4.19

TDs / 15 min

0.00

72%

Takedown defense

85%

1.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.53Δ 1.43 — meaningful gap+0.10

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Benoit Saint DenisMauricio Ruffy

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Benoit Saint Denis(10 fights)Mauricio Ruffy(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -7.0|Blue +7.0

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Layoff

Red -63.0|Blue +63.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Benoit Saint DenisTargetMauricio Ruffy

By target zone

35% acc · 53%

Head

29% acc · 80%

67% acc · 47%

Body

33% acc · 20%

Leg

By position

35% acc · 53%

Distance

29% acc · 100%

100% acc · 18%

Clinch

56% acc · 29%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Benoit Saint Denis rounds

even

Mauricio Ruffy rounds

Round 1Benoit Saint Denis edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns2

Control3:04

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:16Control

Round 2Benoit Saint Denis edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control1:34

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:18Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

17 / 38

Sig Strikes

5 / 17

44%

Sig Str %

26%

37 / 61

Total Strikes

6 / 18

3 / 10

TDs

0 / 0

30%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

4:38

Ctrl Time

0:34

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Mauricio Ruffy	1 / 6	1 / 6	0 / 0	0
1	Benoit Saint Denis	6 / 18	19 / 32	2 / 5	0
2	Mauricio Ruffy	4 / 11	5 / 12	0 / 0	0
2	Benoit Saint Denis	11 / 20	18 / 29	1 / 5	1

Benoit Saint Denis

StanceSouthpaw

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights13

Mauricio Ruffy

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights5