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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Benoit Saint Denis won · SUB R2

Elo1546

Benoit Saint Denis editorial illustration

Elo1459

Benoit Saint DenisvsKyle PrepolecUFC Prediction Result

UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · Saturday, May 10, 2025Montreal, Quebec, Canada

Official fight result

Benoit Saint Denis won

SUB · Round 2 · 2:35

Style matchupBenoit Saint Denis: WrestlervsKyle Prepolec: Striker

Classic wrestler-vs-striker. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Benoit Saint Denis wins(88.9%)

Actual result: Benoit Saint Denis wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Benoit Saint Denis at -1400 American odds

+$7 profit

$107 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Kyle Prepolec enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Benoit Saint Denis has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.

Tale of the Tape

Benoit Saint Denis

Red Corner

Kyle Prepolec

Blue Corner

-1400

(93%)

Vegas Odds

+830

(11%)

1546

Elo

1459

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'11"

Height

5'10"

185.42 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Benoit Saint Denis

oldest →

KOvs Renato Moicano · Sep 24

SUBvs Mauricio Ruffy · Sep 25

KOvs Beneil Dariush · Nov 25

KOvs Dan Hooker · Jan 26

SUBvs Paddy Pimblett · Jul 26

latest

Kyle PrepolecL3 streak

oldest →

vs Nordine Taleb · May 19

vs Austin Hubbard · Sep 19

KOvs Drew Dober · Oct 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Benoit Saint DenisMetricKyle Prepolec

5.62

Strikes / min

3.25

4.09

Strikes absorbed / min

5.69

42%

Strike defense

48%

4.19

TDs / 15 min

0.00

72%

Takedown defense

45%

1.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.53Δ 3.97 — meaningful gap-2.44

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Benoit Saint DenisKyle Prepolec

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Benoit Saint Denis(10 fights)Kyle Prepolec(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +87.0|Blue -87.0

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Layoff

Red -1841.0|Blue +1841.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Benoit Saint DenisTargetKyle Prepolec

By target zone

71% acc · 67%

Head

42% acc · 92%

92% acc · 20%

Body

100% acc · 8%

100% acc · 13%

Leg

By position

73% acc · 44%

Distance

42% acc · 83%

92% acc · 41%

Clinch

67% acc · 17%

62% acc · 15%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Benoit Saint Denis rounds

even

Kyle Prepolec rounds

Round 1Benoit Saint Denis edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns2

Control4:32

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Benoit Saint Denis edged it

Sig. strikes44

Takedowns1

Control1:00

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

54 / 70

Sig Strikes

12 / 27

71.5%

Sig Str %

23%

77 / 103

Total Strikes

14 / 29

3 / 5

TDs

0 / 1

58%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

5:32

Ctrl Time

0:07

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Kyle Prepolec	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0
1	Benoit Saint Denis	10 / 16	27 / 43	2 / 3	1
2	Kyle Prepolec	12 / 26	14 / 28	0 / 1	0
2	Benoit Saint Denis	44 / 54	50 / 60	1 / 2	1

Benoit Saint Denis

StanceSouthpaw

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights13

Kyle Prepolec

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights4