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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Benito Lopez won · U-DEC R3

Elo1495

Elo1454

Benito LopezvsVince MoralesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: De Randamie vs. Ladd · Saturday, July 13, 2019Sacramento, California, USA

Official fight result

Benito Lopez won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupBenito Lopez: Pressure fightervsVince Morales: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Vince Morales wins(50.4%)

Actual result: Benito Lopez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Vince Morales at -105 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Vince Morales enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Benito Lopez (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Benito Lopez

Red Corner

Vince Morales

Blue Corner

-105

(51%)

Vegas Odds

-105

(51%)

1495

Elo

1454

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'7"

185.42 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Benito LopezL2 streak

oldest →

vs Albert Morales · Dec 17

SUBvs Manny Bermudez · Feb 19

SUBvs Mario Bautista · Nov 22

latest

Vince MoralesL5 streak

oldest →

vs Miles Johns · Nov 22

vs Taylor Lapilus · Sep 24

vs Elijah Smith · Feb 25

vs Raul Rosas Jr. · Mar 25

DECvs Colby Thicknesse · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Benito LopezMetricVince Morales

4.39

Strikes / min

3.54

5.18

Strikes absorbed / min

3.91

56%

Strike defense

54%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

0.71

73%

Takedown defense

63%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.79evenly matched on net striking-0.37

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Benito LopezVince Morales

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Benito Lopez(4 fights)Vince Morales(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +40.6|Blue -40.6

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +76.0|Blue -76.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Benito LopezTargetVince Morales

By target zone

11% acc · 11%

Head

38% acc · 72%

36% acc · 17%

Body

69% acc · 14%

75% acc · 72%

Leg

75% acc · 14%

By position

42% acc · 100%

Distance

42% acc · 88%

0% acc

Clinch

40% acc · 3%

Ground

75% acc · 9%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Benito Lopez rounds

even

Vince Morales rounds

Round 1Vince Morales edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:29Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Vince Morales edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:00

32Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

54 / 132

Sig Strikes

64 / 147

40.3%

Sig Str %

42.7%

54 / 132

Total Strikes

67 / 150

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:29

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Vince Morales	16 / 38	19 / 41	0 / 0
1	Benito Lopez	16 / 37	16 / 37	0 / 0
2	Vince Morales	16 / 40	16 / 40	0 / 0
2	Benito Lopez	17 / 46	17 / 46	0 / 0
3	Vince Morales	32 / 69	32 / 69	0 / 0
3	Benito Lopez	21 / 49	21 / 49	0 / 0

Benito Lopez

StanceSwitch

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights4

Vince Morales

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights11