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Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Manny Bermudez won · SUB R1
Elo1495
Benito Lopez
Elo1377

Benito LopezvsManny BermudezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez · Sunday, February 17, 2019Phoenix, Arizona, USA

Official fight result

Manny Bermudez won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:09

Style matchupBenito Lopez: Pressure fightervsManny Bermudez: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Benito Lopez wins(55.2%)

Actual result: Manny Bermudez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Benito Lopez at +170 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Manny Bermudez threatens submissions; Benito Lopez has lost 100% of fights by sub.
  • Benito Lopez has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Benito Lopez has 73pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Benito Lopez (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Benito Lopez
Red Corner
VS
Manny Bermudez
Blue Corner
+170
(37%)
Vegas Odds
-200
(67%)
1495
Elo
1377
32
Age
32
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'10"
185.42 cm
Reach
180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Benito Lopez
oldest →
W
vs Albert Morales · Dec 17
W
vs Vince Morales · Jul 19
L
SUBvs Mario Bautista · Nov 22
latest
Manny BermudezL2 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs Albert Morales · Feb 18
W
SUBvs Davey Grant · Jul 18
L
vs Casey Kenney · Aug 19
L
SUBvs Charles Rosa · Oct 19
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Benito LopezMetricManny Bermudez
4.39
Strikes / min
2.92
5.18
Strikes absorbed / min
2.68
56%
Strike defense
46%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
3.06
73%
Takedown defense
0%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
3.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.79Δ 1.03 — meaningful gap+0.24

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1515 vs 1529Strikes78.0 vs 7.5Takedowns0.0 vs 0.5Sub Atts1.00 vs 2.50Form1.0 vs 1.0
Benito LopezManny Bermudez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Benito Lopez(4 fights)Manny Bermudez(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +117.8|Blue -117.8
Recent Form
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Grappler Score
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Layoff
Red +225.0|Blue -225.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Benito LopezTargetManny Bermudez

By target zone

3
38% acc · 43%
Head
3
50% acc · 43%
0
Body
4
100% acc · 57%
4
100% acc · 57%
Leg
0

By position

2
33% acc · 29%
Distance
2
50% acc · 29%
5
83% acc · 71%
Clinch
1
100% acc · 14%
0
Ground
4
80% acc · 57%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Benito Lopez rounds
0
even
1
Manny Bermudez rounds
Round 1Manny Bermudez edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns0
Control0:59
7Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:32Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
7 / 12
Sig Strikes
7 / 10
58%
Sig Str %
70%
11 / 16
Total Strikes
14 / 19
0 / 0
TDs
1 / 1
—
TD %
100%
0
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
0
0:59
Ctrl Time
1:32

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Manny Bermudez7 / 1014 / 191 / 11
1Benito Lopez7 / 1211 / 160 / 00

Benito Lopez

StanceSwitch
Height70.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights4

Manny Bermudez

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights5