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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Michael Chiesa won · SUB R2

Elo1480

Elo1529

Beneil DariushvsMichael ChiesaUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Teixeira vs Evans · Saturday, April 16, 2016Tampa, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Michael Chiesa won

SUB · Round 2 · 1:20

Style matchupBeneil Dariush: WrestlervsMichael Chiesa: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Beneil Dariush wins(70.8%)

Actual result: Michael Chiesa wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Beneil Dariush at -165 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Michael Chiesa enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Beneil Dariush has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Beneil Dariush

Red Corner

Michael Chiesa

Blue Corner

-165

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+145

(41%)

1480

Elo

1529

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'10"

Height

6'1"

182.88 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Beneil DariushL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Charles Oliveira · Jun 23

KOvs Arman Tsarukyan · Dec 23

vs Renato Moicano · Jun 25

KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Nov 25

KOvs Quillan Salkilld · May 26

latest

Michael ChiesaW4 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Kevin Holland · Jul 23

SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Aug 24

SUBvs Max Griffin · Dec 24

vs Court McGee · Jun 25

SUBvs Niko Price · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Beneil DariushMetricMichael Chiesa

3.74

Strikes / min

2.02

2.63

Strikes absorbed / min

1.73

57%

Strike defense

57%

2.21

TDs / 15 min

3.11

82%

Takedown defense

65%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.11evenly matched on net striking+0.29

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Beneil DariushMichael Chiesa

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Beneil Dariush(10 fights)Michael Chiesa(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -48.5|Blue +48.5

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +124.0|Blue -124.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Beneil DariushTargetMichael Chiesa

By target zone

33% acc · 41%

Head

16% acc · 64%

57% acc · 15%

Body

25% acc · 9%

92% acc · 44%

Leg

100% acc · 27%

By position

51% acc · 89%

Distance

19% acc · 82%

50% acc · 11%

Clinch

40% acc · 18%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Beneil Dariush rounds

even

Michael Chiesa rounds

Round 1Beneil Dariush edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns1

Control0:55

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:25Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:05

0Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:51Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

27 / 53

Sig Strikes

11 / 52

64.5%

Sig Str %

12.5%

27 / 53

Total Strikes

12 / 53

1 / 4

TDs

1 / 2

16.5%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

1:00

Ctrl Time

1:16

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Michael Chiesa	11 / 43	11 / 43	0 / 1	0
1	Beneil Dariush	22 / 47	22 / 47	1 / 3	0
2	Michael Chiesa	0 / 9	1 / 10	1 / 1	2
2	Beneil Dariush	5 / 6	5 / 6	0 / 1	0

Beneil Dariush

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights24

Michael Chiesa

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights22