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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Beneil Dariush won · U-DEC R3

Elo1480

Elo1525

Beneil DariushvsMateusz GamrotUFC Prediction Result

UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev · Saturday, October 22, 2022Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Beneil Dariush won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupBeneil Dariush: WrestlervsMateusz Gamrot: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Beneil Dariush wins(60.4%)

Actual result: Beneil Dariush wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Beneil Dariush at +210 American odds

+$210 profit

$310 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Beneil Dariush

Red Corner

Mateusz Gamrot

Blue Corner

+210

(32%)

Vegas Odds

-250

(71%)

1480

Elo

1525

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'10"

Height

5'10"

182.88 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Beneil DariushL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Charles Oliveira · Jun 23

KOvs Arman Tsarukyan · Dec 23

vs Renato Moicano · Jun 25

KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Nov 25

KOvs Quillan Salkilld · May 26

latest

Mateusz Gamrot

oldest →

vs Rafael Dos Anjos · Mar 24

vs Dan Hooker · Aug 24

vs Ludovit Klein · May 25

SUBvs Charles Oliveira · Oct 25

SUBvs Esteban Ribovics · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Beneil DariushMetricMateusz Gamrot

3.74

Strikes / min

3.21

2.63

Strikes absorbed / min

2.81

57%

Strike defense

60%

2.21

TDs / 15 min

5.22

82%

Takedown defense

83%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.11evenly matched on net striking+0.40

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Beneil DariushMateusz Gamrot

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Beneil Dariush(10 fights)Mateusz Gamrot(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -44.2|Blue +44.2

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +406.0|Blue -406.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Beneil DariushTargetMateusz Gamrot

By target zone

35% acc · 59%

Head

33% acc · 67%

71% acc · 25%

Body

75% acc · 27%

100% acc · 15%

Leg

100% acc · 6%

By position

43% acc · 88%

Distance

38% acc · 88%

67% acc · 3%

Clinch

80% acc · 12%

83% acc · 8%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Beneil Dariush rounds

even

Mateusz Gamrot rounds

Round 1Mateusz Gamrot edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:05

9Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:22Control

Round 2Beneil Dariush edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns0

Control0:03

15Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:10Control

Round 3Beneil Dariush edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:26

Knockdowns1

9Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:35Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

59 / 130

Sig Strikes

33 / 81

43.7%

Sig Str %

47.3%

67 / 138

Total Strikes

38 / 86

0 / 0

TDs

4 / 19

—

TD %

21%

Sub Att

Rev

0:34

Ctrl Time

2:07

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Mateusz Gamrot	9 / 13	13 / 17	2 / 6
1	Beneil Dariush	9 / 26	13 / 30	0 / 0
2	Mateusz Gamrot	15 / 47	15 / 47	1 / 7
2	Beneil Dariush	31 / 67	32 / 68	0 / 0
3	Mateusz Gamrot	9 / 21	10 / 22	1 / 6
3	Beneil Dariush	19 / 37	22 / 40	0 / 0

Beneil Dariush

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights24

Mateusz Gamrot

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights12