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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Beneil Dariush won · SUB R2

Elo1480

Elo1514

Beneil DariushvsDrew DoberUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos Santos · Saturday, March 9, 2019Wichita, Kansas, USA

Official fight result

Beneil Dariush won

SUB · Round 2 · 4:41

Style matchupBeneil Dariush: WrestlervsDrew Dober: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Beneil Dariush wins(60.8%)

Actual result: Beneil Dariush wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Beneil Dariush at -220 American odds

+$45 profit

$145 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Drew Dober is a KO finisher (73% of wins). Beneil Dariush has lost 88% of fights by KO.
Beneil Dariush has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Beneil Dariush

Red Corner

Drew Dober

Blue Corner

-220

(69%)

Vegas Odds

+180

(36%)

1480

Elo

1514

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'10"

Height

5'8"

182.88 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Beneil DariushL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Charles Oliveira · Jun 23

KOvs Arman Tsarukyan · Dec 23

vs Renato Moicano · Jun 25

KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Nov 25

KOvs Quillan Salkilld · May 26

latest

Drew DoberW2 streak

oldest →

vs Renato Moicano · Feb 24

KOvs Jean Silva · Jul 24

KOvs Manuel Torres · Mar 25

KOvs Kyle Prepolec · Oct 25

KOvs Michael Johnson · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Beneil DariushMetricDrew Dober

3.74

Strikes / min

4.48

2.63

Strikes absorbed / min

4.33

57%

Strike defense

53%

2.21

TDs / 15 min

0.61

82%

Takedown defense

58%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.11evenly matched on net striking+0.15

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Beneil DariushDrew Dober

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Beneil Dariush(10 fights)Drew Dober(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -33.4|Blue +33.4

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -77.0|Blue +77.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Beneil DariushTargetDrew Dober

By target zone

47% acc · 59%

Head

39% acc · 55%

86% acc · 32%

Body

100% acc · 29%

75% acc · 8%

Leg

100% acc · 16%

By position

44% acc · 46%

Distance

40% acc · 55%

71% acc · 27%

Clinch

93% acc · 45%

83% acc · 27%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Beneil Dariush rounds

even

Drew Dober rounds

Round 1Drew Dober edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control1:13

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:38Control

Round 2Beneil Dariush edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns2

Control4:05

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:25Control

Fight Stats

Totals

37 / 65

Sig Strikes

31 / 58

64.5%

Sig Str %

75%

41 / 69

Total Strikes

38 / 66

2 / 5

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

5:18

Ctrl Time

1:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Drew Dober	28 / 55	34 / 62	0 / 0	0
1	Beneil Dariush	24 / 49	24 / 49	0 / 3	0
2	Drew Dober	3 / 3	4 / 4	0 / 0	0
2	Beneil Dariush	13 / 16	17 / 20	2 / 2	1

Beneil Dariush

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights24

Drew Dober

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights26