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Lightweight
5 Rounds
Arman Tsarukyan won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1480
Beneil Dariush
Elo1531
Arman Tsarukyan

Beneil DariushvsArman TsarukyanUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · Saturday, December 2, 2023Austin, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Arman Tsarukyan won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:04

Style matchupBeneil Dariush: WrestlervsArman Tsarukyan: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Arman Tsarukyan wins(64.6%)

Actual result: Arman Tsarukyan wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Arman Tsarukyan at -280 American odds

+$36 profit

$136 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Arman Tsarukyan enters on a 4-fight win streak.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Beneil Dariush (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Beneil Dariush
Red Corner
VS
Arman Tsarukyan
Blue Corner
+210
(32%)
Vegas Odds
-280
(74%)
1480
Elo
1531
37
Age
29
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'7"
182.88 cm
Reach
182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Beneil DariushL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Mateusz Gamrot · Oct 22
L
KOvs Charles Oliveira · Jun 23
W
vs Renato Moicano · Jun 25
L
KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Nov 25
L
KOvs Quillan Salkilld · May 26
latest
Arman TsarukyanW4 streak
oldest →
L
vs Mateusz Gamrot · Jun 22
W
vs Damir Ismagulov · Dec 22
W
KOvs Joaquim Silva · Jun 23
W
vs Charles Oliveira · Apr 24
W
SUBvs Dan Hooker · Nov 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Beneil DariushMetricArman Tsarukyan
3.74
Strikes / min
3.85
2.63
Strikes absorbed / min
1.80
57%
Strike defense
54%
2.21
TDs / 15 min
3.26
82%
Takedown defense
75%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.11evenly matched on net striking+2.05

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1675 vs 1582Strikes3.8 vs 3.8Takedowns1.9 vs 3.3Sub Atts0.90 vs 0.00Form0.0 vs 0.7
Beneil DariushArman Tsarukyan

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701490151015301550← oldermost recent →
Beneil Dariush(10 fights)Arman Tsarukyan(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -50.5|Blue +50.5
Recent Form
Red -0.7|Blue +0.7
Striker Score
Red +0.8|Blue -0.8
Grappler Score
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red +7.0|Blue -7.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Beneil DariushTargetArman Tsarukyan

By target zone

0
0% acc
Head
8
53% acc · 100%
0
0% acc
Body
0
2
100% acc · 100%
Leg
0

By position

2
25% acc · 100%
Distance
4
40% acc · 50%
0
Clinch
2
100% acc · 25%
0
Ground
2
67% acc · 25%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Beneil Dariush rounds
0
even
1
Arman Tsarukyan rounds
Round 1Arman Tsarukyan edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
8Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:03Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
2 / 8
Sig Strikes
8 / 15
25%
Sig Str %
53%
2 / 8
Total Strikes
8 / 15
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:03

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Arman Tsarukyan8 / 158 / 150 / 00
1Beneil Dariush2 / 82 / 80 / 00

Beneil Dariush

StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights24

Arman Tsarukyan

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights11