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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Takashi Sato won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1379

Elo1459

Ben SaundersvsTakashi SatoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Hermansson · Saturday, April 27, 2019Sunrise, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Takashi Sato won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 1:18

Model Prediction: Ben Saunders wins(56.9%)

Actual result: Takashi Sato wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ben Saunders at +190 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ben Saunders enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Takashi Sato enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Takashi Sato is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Ben Saunders has lost 67% of fights by KO.
Ben Saunders threatens submissions; Takashi Sato has lost 40% of fights by sub.
Stance matchup historically favors Takashi Sato (53.5%).
Ben Saunders has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Ben Saunders

Red Corner

Takashi Sato

Blue Corner

+190

(34%)

Vegas Odds

-230

(70%)

1379

Elo

1459

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'2"

Height

5'10"

195.58 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ben SaundersL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Alan Jouban · Feb 18

KOvs Jake Ellenberger · Jun 18

SUBvs Sergio Moraes · Sep 18

KOvs Lyman Good · Nov 18

KOvs Matt Brown · Dec 19

latest

Takashi SatoL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Jason Witt · Jun 20

SUBvs Miguel Baeza · Nov 20

vs Gunnar Nelson · Mar 22

KOvs Bryan Battle · Aug 22

vs Themba Gorimbo · May 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ben SaundersMetricTakashi Sato

3.23

Strikes / min

2.21

3.58

Strikes absorbed / min

3.73

51%

Strike defense

44%

0.20

TDs / 15 min

0.76

66%

Takedown defense

60%

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.35Δ 1.17 — meaningful gap-1.52

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ben SaundersTakashi Sato

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ben Saunders(10 fights)Takashi Sato(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -80.4|Blue +80.4

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red -48.1|Blue +48.1

Grappler Score

Red -49.8|Blue +49.8

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ben SaundersTargetTakashi Sato

By target zone

20% acc · 20%

Head

39% acc · 89%

79% acc · 48%

Body

67% acc · 7%

94% acc · 33%

Leg

50% acc · 4%

By position

41% acc · 63%

Distance

30% acc · 46%

85% acc · 37%

Clinch

33% acc · 7%

Ground

68% acc · 46%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ben Saunders rounds

even

Takashi Sato rounds

Round 1Ben Saunders edged it

Sig. strikes39

Takedowns0

Control0:25

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Takashi Sato edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:17Control

1Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

46 / 90

Sig Strikes

28 / 69

47.5%

Sig Str %

43%

47 / 91

Total Strikes

33 / 74

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:25

Ctrl Time

0:17

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Takashi Sato	12 / 41	16 / 45	0 / 0
1	Ben Saunders	39 / 74	39 / 74	0 / 0
2	Takashi Sato	16 / 28	17 / 29	0 / 0
2	Ben Saunders	7 / 16	8 / 17	0 / 0

Ben Saunders

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights14

Takashi Sato

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights7