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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Jon Fitch won · U-DEC R3

Elo1379

Elo1490

Ben SaundersvsJon FitchUFC Prediction Result

UFC 111: St-Pierre vs Hardy · Saturday, March 27, 2010Newark, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Jon Fitch won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupBen Saunders: Well-roundedvsJon Fitch: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Jon Fitch wins(84.7%)

Actual result: Jon Fitch wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jon Fitch at -325 American odds

+$31 profit

$131 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ben Saunders enters on a 4-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Ben Saunders

Red Corner

Jon Fitch

Blue Corner

+295

(25%)

Vegas Odds

-325

(76%)

1379

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'0"

195.58 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ben SaundersL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Jake Ellenberger · Jun 18

SUBvs Sergio Moraes · Sep 18

KOvs Lyman Good · Nov 18

KOvs Takashi Sato · Apr 19

KOvs Matt Brown · Dec 19

latest

Jon Fitch

oldest →

vs Thiago Alves · Aug 10

KOvs Johny Hendricks · Dec 11

vs Erick Silva · Oct 12

vs Demian Maia · Feb 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ben SaundersMetricJon Fitch

3.23

Strikes / min

2.61

3.58

Strikes absorbed / min

1.65

51%

Strike defense

54%

0.20

TDs / 15 min

3.60

66%

Takedown defense

56%

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.35Δ 1.31 — meaningful gap+0.96

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ben SaundersJon Fitch

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ben Saunders(10 fights)Jon Fitch(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -111.4|Blue +111.4

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ben SaundersTargetJon Fitch

By target zone

24% acc · 24%

Head

63% acc · 57%

100% acc · 35%

Body

85% acc · 24%

100% acc · 41%

Leg

100% acc · 19%

By position

29% acc · 24%

Distance

55% acc · 15%

81% acc · 76%

Clinch

72% acc · 32%

Ground

81% acc · 53%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ben Saunders rounds

even

Jon Fitch rounds

Round 1Jon Fitch edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:20

15Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:15Control

Round 2Jon Fitch edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:16

21Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:56Control

Round 3Jon Fitch edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:07

36Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

4:04Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

17 / 30

Sig Strikes

72 / 99

55.7%

Sig Str %

73.7%

31 / 44

Total Strikes

212 / 247

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 7

—

TD %

27.7%

Sub Att

Rev

0:43

Ctrl Time

12:15

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jon Fitch	15 / 20	71 / 80	1 / 2
1	Ben Saunders	9 / 11	17 / 19	0 / 0
2	Jon Fitch	21 / 27	60 / 68	1 / 3
2	Ben Saunders	4 / 11	8 / 15	0 / 0
3	Jon Fitch	36 / 52	81 / 99	0 / 2
3	Ben Saunders	4 / 8	6 / 10	0 / 0

Ben Saunders

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights14

Jon Fitch

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights5