← All fights/Event page

Welterweight

3 Rounds

Ben Saunders won · SUB R1

Elo1379

Elo1354

Ben SaundersvsChris HeatherlyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Le · Saturday, August 23, 2014Tulsa, Oklahoma, USA

Official fight result

Ben Saunders won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:18

Style matchupBen Saunders: Well-roundedvsChris Heatherly: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Ben Saunders wins(70.9%)

Actual result: Ben Saunders wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ben Saunders at -385 American odds

+$26 profit

$126 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ben Saunders enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Ben Saunders threatens submissions; Chris Heatherly has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Chris Heatherly has 34pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Ben Saunders has a 23cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Ben Saunders

Red Corner

Chris Heatherly

Blue Corner

-385

(79%)

Vegas Odds

+345

(22%)

1379

Elo

1354

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

5'9"

195.58 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ben SaundersL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Jake Ellenberger · Jun 18

SUBvs Sergio Moraes · Sep 18

KOvs Lyman Good · Nov 18

KOvs Takashi Sato · Apr 19

KOvs Matt Brown · Dec 19

latest

Chris Heatherly

oldest →

KOvs Augusto Montano · Nov 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ben SaundersMetricChris Heatherly

3.23

Strikes / min

1.08

3.58

Strikes absorbed / min

2.67

51%

Strike defense

52%

0.20

TDs / 15 min

3.39

66%

Takedown defense

100%

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.35Δ 1.24 — meaningful gap-1.59

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ben SaundersChris Heatherly

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ben Saunders(10 fights)Chris Heatherly(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +24.9|Blue -24.9

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red -48.1|Blue +48.1

Grappler Score

Red -49.7|Blue +49.7

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ben SaundersTargetChris Heatherly

By target zone

33% acc · 25%

Head

50% acc · 25%

100% acc · 25%

Body

100% acc · 75%

100% acc · 50%

Leg

By position

75% acc · 75%

Distance

75% acc · 75%

Clinch

50% acc · 25%

Ground

100% acc · 25%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ben Saunders rounds

even

Chris Heatherly rounds

Round 1Chris Heatherly edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:44

4Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:14Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

4 / 6

Sig Strikes

4 / 5

66%

Sig Str %

80%

6 / 11

Total Strikes

7 / 9

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 1

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:44

Ctrl Time

1:14

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Chris Heatherly	4 / 5	7 / 9	1 / 1	0
1	Ben Saunders	4 / 6	6 / 11	0 / 0	2

Ben Saunders

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights14

Chris Heatherly

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach—

Fights2