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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Alan Jouban won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1379

Elo1493

Ben SaundersvsAlan JoubanUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Stephens · Saturday, February 24, 2018Orlando, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Alan Jouban won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 2:38

Style matchupBen Saunders: Well-roundedvsAlan Jouban: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Alan Jouban wins(64.7%)

Actual result: Alan Jouban wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alan Jouban at -250 American odds

+$40 profit

$140 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ben Saunders enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Alan Jouban is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Ben Saunders has lost 67% of fights by KO.
Stance matchup historically favors Alan Jouban (53.5%).
Ben Saunders has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Ben Saunders

Red Corner

Alan Jouban

Blue Corner

+210

(32%)

Vegas Odds

-250

(71%)

1379

Elo

1493

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'2"

Height

6'0"

195.58 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ben SaundersL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Jake Ellenberger · Jun 18

SUBvs Sergio Moraes · Sep 18

KOvs Lyman Good · Nov 18

KOvs Takashi Sato · Apr 19

KOvs Matt Brown · Dec 19

latest

Alan Jouban

oldest →

vs Mike Perry · Dec 16

SUBvs Gunnar Nelson · Mar 17

KOvs Niko Price · Aug 17

vs Dwight Grant · Apr 19

vs Jared Gooden · Nov 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ben SaundersMetricAlan Jouban

3.23

Strikes / min

5.67

3.58

Strikes absorbed / min

3.77

51%

Strike defense

60%

0.20

TDs / 15 min

0.51

66%

Takedown defense

58%

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.35Δ 2.25 — meaningful gap+1.90

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ben SaundersAlan Jouban

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ben Saunders(10 fights)Alan Jouban(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -114.2|Blue +114.2

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +69.0|Blue -69.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ben SaundersTargetAlan Jouban

By target zone

35% acc · 64%

Head

49% acc · 68%

57% acc · 24%

Body

77% acc · 13%

80% acc · 12%

Leg

79% acc · 19%

By position

38% acc · 76%

Distance

55% acc · 77%

62% acc · 24%

Clinch

57% acc · 21%

0% acc

Ground

67% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ben Saunders rounds

even

Alan Jouban rounds

Round 1Alan Jouban edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:03

Knockdowns0

44Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:12Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Alan Jouban edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

34Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

33 / 79

Sig Strikes

78 / 141

41%

Sig Str %

55.5%

34 / 80

Total Strikes

78 / 141

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:03

Ctrl Time

0:18

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Alan Jouban	44 / 83	44 / 83	0 / 0
1	Ben Saunders	20 / 46	20 / 46	0 / 0
2	Alan Jouban	34 / 58	34 / 58	0 / 0
2	Ben Saunders	13 / 33	14 / 34	0 / 0

Ben Saunders

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights14

Alan Jouban

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights13