Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Ben Rothwell won · S-DEC R3

Elo1494

Elo1497

Ben RothwellvsOvince Saint PreuxUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Teixeira · Wednesday, May 13, 2020Jacksonville, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Ben Rothwell won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupBen Rothwell: Well-roundedvsOvince Saint Preux: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Ovince Saint Preux wins(51.1%)

Actual result: Ben Rothwell wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ovince Saint Preux at -132 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Ovince Saint Preux (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Ben Rothwell

Red Corner

Ovince Saint Preux

Blue Corner

+112

(47%)

Vegas Odds

-132

(57%)

1494

Elo

1497

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'4"

Height

6'3"

198.12 cm

Reach

203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ben Rothwell

oldest →

vs Andrei Arlovski · Jul 19

KOvs Stefan Struve · Dec 19

vs Marcin Tybura · Oct 20

SUBvs Chris Barnett · May 21

KOvs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · Nov 21

latest

Ovince Saint Preux

oldest →

KOvs Tanner Boser · Jun 21

vs Mauricio Rua · May 22

KOvs Philipe Lins · Feb 23

vs Kennedy Nzechukwu · Mar 24

SUBvs Ryan Spann · Oct 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ben RothwellMetricOvince Saint Preux

3.71

Strikes / min

3.03

4.63

Strikes absorbed / min

3.33

47%

Strike defense

47%

0.68

TDs / 15 min

1.09

70%

Takedown defense

67%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.92evenly matched on net striking-0.30

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ben RothwellOvince Saint Preux

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ben Rothwell(10 fights)Ovince Saint Preux(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -3.1|Blue +3.1

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -70.0|Blue +70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ben RothwellTargetOvince Saint Preux

By target zone

42% acc · 66%

Head

44% acc · 64%

88% acc · 27%

Body

87% acc · 31%

100% acc · 7%

Leg

40% acc · 5%

By position

51% acc · 71%

Distance

47% acc · 79%

48% acc · 25%

Clinch

75% acc · 21%

100% acc · 4%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ben Rothwell rounds

even

Ovince Saint Preux rounds

Round 1Ben Rothwell edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control1:35

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control1:30

Knockdowns0

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:22Control

1Knockdowns

Round 3Ben Rothwell edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control2:44

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

56 / 110

Sig Strikes

42 / 82

50%

Sig Str %

50%

86 / 142

Total Strikes

46 / 87

1 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

5:49

Ctrl Time

0:22

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Ovince Saint Preux	9 / 19	9 / 19	0 / 0
1	Ben Rothwell	7 / 14	18 / 26	1 / 1
2	Ovince Saint Preux	13 / 27	16 / 31	0 / 0
2	Ben Rothwell	19 / 41	24 / 47	0 / 2
3	Ovince Saint Preux	20 / 36	21 / 37	0 / 0
3	Ben Rothwell	30 / 55	44 / 69	0 / 0

Ben Rothwell

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights16

Ovince Saint Preux

StanceSouthpaw

Height75.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights28