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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Ben Rothwell won · SUB R1

Elo1494

Elo1356

Ben RothwellvsMatt MitrioneUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Henderson · Saturday, June 6, 2015New Orleans, Louisiana, USA

Official fight result

Ben Rothwell won

SUB · Round 1 · 1:54

Style matchupBen Rothwell: Well-roundedvsMatt Mitrione: Elusive striker

The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.

Model Prediction: Matt Mitrione wins(62.5%)

Actual result: Ben Rothwell wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Matt Mitrione at -165 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Matt Mitrione has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Ben Rothwell has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Matt Mitrione (52.9%).
Matt Mitrione has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Ben Rothwell

Red Corner

Matt Mitrione

Blue Corner

+145

(41%)

Vegas Odds

-165

(62%)

1494

Elo

1356

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

6'4"

Height

6'3"

198.12 cm

Reach

208.28 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ben Rothwell

oldest →

KOvs Stefan Struve · Dec 19

vs Ovince Saint Preux · May 20

vs Marcin Tybura · Oct 20

SUBvs Chris Barnett · May 21

KOvs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · Nov 21

latest

Matt Mitrione

oldest →

SUBvs Brendan Schaub · Sep 13

KOvs Shawn Jordan · Mar 14

KOvs Derrick Lewis · Sep 14

KOvs Gabriel Gonzaga · Dec 14

KOvs Travis Browne · Jan 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ben RothwellMetricMatt Mitrione

3.71

Strikes / min

3.55

4.63

Strikes absorbed / min

2.79

47%

Strike defense

64%

0.68

TDs / 15 min

0.00

70%

Takedown defense

55%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.92Δ 1.68 — meaningful gap+0.76

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ben RothwellMatt Mitrione

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ben Rothwell(10 fights)Matt Mitrione(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +138.0|Blue -138.0

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +99.0|Blue -99.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ben RothwellTargetMatt Mitrione

By target zone

29% acc · 80%

Head

33% acc · 75%

Body

50% acc · 13%

50% acc · 20%

Leg

100% acc · 13%

By position

31% acc · 100%

Distance

40% acc · 100%

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ben Rothwell rounds

even

Matt Mitrione rounds

Round 1Matt Mitrione edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:02

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

5 / 16

Sig Strikes

8 / 21

31%

Sig Str %

38%

6 / 17

Total Strikes

8 / 21

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Matt Mitrione	8 / 21	8 / 21	0 / 1	0
1	Ben Rothwell	5 / 16	6 / 17	0 / 0	1

Ben Rothwell

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights16

Matt Mitrione

StanceSwitch

Height75.0"

Reach82.0"

Fights13