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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Marcin Tybura won · U-DEC

Elo1494

Elo1495

Ben RothwellvsMarcin TyburaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. Sandhagen · Saturday, October 10, 2020Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Marcin Tybura won

U-DEC

Style matchupBen Rothwell: Well-roundedvsMarcin Tybura: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Marcin Tybura wins(50.6%)

Actual result: Marcin Tybura wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Marcin Tybura at +130 American odds

+$130 profit

$230 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Ben Rothwell

Red Corner

Marcin Tybura

Blue Corner

-159

(61%)

Vegas Odds

+130

(43%)

1494

Elo

1495

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'3"

198.12 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ben Rothwell

oldest →

vs Andrei Arlovski · Jul 19

KOvs Stefan Struve · Dec 19

vs Ovince Saint Preux · May 20

SUBvs Chris Barnett · May 21

KOvs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · Nov 21

latest

Marcin TyburaL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Serghei Spivac · Aug 24

KOvs Jhonata Diniz · Nov 24

vs Mick Parkin · Mar 25

KOvs Ante Delija · Sep 25

vs Tyrell Fortune · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ben RothwellMetricMarcin Tybura

3.71

Strikes / min

3.56

4.63

Strikes absorbed / min

3.26

47%

Strike defense

55%

0.68

TDs / 15 min

1.30

70%

Takedown defense

70%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.92Δ 1.22 — meaningful gap+0.30

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ben RothwellMarcin Tybura

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ben Rothwell(10 fights)Marcin Tybura(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -1.4|Blue +1.4

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +59.0|Blue -59.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ben RothwellTargetMarcin Tybura

By target zone

26% acc · 71%

Head

45% acc · 73%

84% acc · 18%

Body

79% acc · 16%

100% acc · 11%

Leg

100% acc · 11%

By position

30% acc · 88%

Distance

54% acc · 95%

69% acc · 12%

Clinch

25% acc · 3%

Ground

33% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ben Rothwell rounds

even

Marcin Tybura rounds

Round 1Ben Rothwell edged it

Sig. strikes46

Takedowns0

Control0:00

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Marcin Tybura edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control0:19

41Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

Round 3Marcin Tybura edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:00

25Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:02Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

89 / 276

Sig Strikes

94 / 183

30.7%

Sig Str %

51%

95 / 287

Total Strikes

155 / 274

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 3

—

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:19

Ctrl Time

3:08

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Marcin Tybura	28 / 66	31 / 70	0 / 0
1	Ben Rothwell	46 / 134	47 / 135	0 / 0
2	Marcin Tybura	41 / 72	44 / 76	0 / 2
2	Ben Rothwell	30 / 93	34 / 99	0 / 0
3	Marcin Tybura	25 / 45	80 / 128	1 / 1
3	Ben Rothwell	13 / 49	14 / 53	0 / 0

Ben Rothwell

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights16

Marcin Tybura

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights24