Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Junior Dos Santos won · U-DEC R5

Elo1494

Elo1393

Ben RothwellvsJunior Dos SantosUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Rothwell vs Dos Santos · Sunday, April 10, 2016Zagreb, Croatia

Official fight result

Junior Dos Santos won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupBen Rothwell: Well-roundedvsJunior Dos Santos: Striker

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Junior Dos Santos wins(54.5%)

Actual result: Junior Dos Santos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Junior Dos Santos at -115 American odds

+$87 profit

$187 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Junior Dos Santos enters on a 4-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Ben Rothwell

Red Corner

Junior Dos Santos

Blue Corner

-105

(51%)

Vegas Odds

-115

(53%)

1494

Elo

1393

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'4"

198.12 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ben Rothwell

oldest →

KOvs Stefan Struve · Dec 19

vs Ovince Saint Preux · May 20

vs Marcin Tybura · Oct 20

SUBvs Chris Barnett · May 21

KOvs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · Nov 21

latest

Junior Dos SantosL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Derrick Lewis · Mar 19

KOvs Francis Ngannou · Jun 19

KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Jan 20

KOvs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Aug 20

KOvs Ciryl Gane · Dec 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ben RothwellMetricJunior Dos Santos

3.71

Strikes / min

4.49

4.63

Strikes absorbed / min

3.33

47%

Strike defense

56%

0.68

TDs / 15 min

0.30

70%

Takedown defense

81%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.92Δ 2.08 — meaningful gap+1.16

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ben RothwellJunior Dos Santos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ben Rothwell(10 fights)Junior Dos Santos(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +101.4|Blue -101.4

Recent Form

Red +1.4|Blue -1.4

Striker Score

Red -1.5|Blue +1.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -42.0|Blue +42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ben RothwellTargetJunior Dos Santos

By target zone

28% acc · 66%

Head

44% acc · 41%

58% acc · 9%

Body

92% acc · 59%

90% acc · 25%

Leg

By position

36% acc · 97%

Distance

156

63% acc · 99%

100% acc · 3%

Clinch

100% acc · 1%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ben Rothwell rounds

even

Junior Dos Santos rounds

Round 1Junior Dos Santos edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:00

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Round 2Junior Dos Santos edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:01

29Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Junior Dos Santos edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:00

29Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 4Junior Dos Santos edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:00

40Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 5Junior Dos Santos edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:00

33Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

77 / 212

Sig Strikes

157 / 247

35.6%

Sig Str %

64%

78 / 213

Total Strikes

157 / 247

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:01

Ctrl Time

0:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Junior Dos Santos	26 / 37	26 / 37	0 / 0
1	Ben Rothwell	19 / 48	19 / 48	0 / 0
2	Junior Dos Santos	29 / 49	29 / 49	0 / 0
2	Ben Rothwell	14 / 42	15 / 43	0 / 0
3	Junior Dos Santos	29 / 43	29 / 43	0 / 0
3	Ben Rothwell	15 / 37	15 / 37	0 / 0
4	Ben Rothwell	18 / 48	18 / 48	0 / 0
4	Junior Dos Santos	40 / 57	40 / 57	0 / 0
5	Junior Dos Santos	33 / 61	33 / 61	0 / 0
5	Ben Rothwell	11 / 37	11 / 37	0 / 0

Ben Rothwell

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights16

Junior Dos Santos

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights19