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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Ben Rothwell won · SUB

Elo1494

Elo1483

Ben RothwellvsChris BarnettUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbrandt · Saturday, May 22, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Ben Rothwell won

SUB

Style matchupBen Rothwell: Well-roundedvsChris Barnett: Striker

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Chris Barnett wins(61.0%)

Actual result: Ben Rothwell wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chris Barnett at +285 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ben Rothwell has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Ben Rothwell has 35pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Ben Rothwell

Red Corner

Chris Barnett

Blue Corner

-345

(78%)

Vegas Odds

+285

(26%)

1494

Elo

1483

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

5'9"

198.12 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ben RothwellL2 streak

oldest →

vs Andrei Arlovski · Jul 19

KOvs Stefan Struve · Dec 19

vs Ovince Saint Preux · May 20

vs Marcin Tybura · Oct 20

KOvs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · Nov 21

latest

Chris BarnettL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Gian Villante · Nov 21

vs Martin Buday · Apr 22

KOvs Jake Collier · Sep 22

KOvs Kennedy Nzechukwu · Oct 24

vs Hamdy Abdelwahab · Oct 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ben RothwellMetricChris Barnett

3.71

Strikes / min

3.36

4.63

Strikes absorbed / min

6.55

47%

Strike defense

36%

0.68

TDs / 15 min

0.00

70%

Takedown defense

35%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.92Δ 2.27 — meaningful gap-3.19

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ben RothwellChris Barnett

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ben Rothwell(10 fights)Chris Barnett(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +11.0|Blue -11.0

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red -48.9|Blue +48.9

Grappler Score

Red -49.8|Blue +49.8

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ben RothwellTargetChris Barnett

By target zone

53% acc · 78%

Head

29% acc · 61%

100% acc · 17%

Body

80% acc · 12%

100% acc · 5%

Leg

82% acc · 27%

By position

57% acc · 90%

Distance

38% acc · 94%

86% acc · 10%

Clinch

50% acc · 6%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ben Rothwell rounds

even

Chris Barnett rounds

Round 1Ben Rothwell edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns1

Control1:48

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Round 2Ben Rothwell edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control0:15

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

60 / 101

Sig Strikes

33 / 85

59%

Sig Str %

38.5%

72 / 120

Total Strikes

34 / 86

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 1

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:03

Ctrl Time

0:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Chris Barnett	16 / 43	17 / 44	0 / 0	0
1	Ben Rothwell	30 / 51	42 / 70	1 / 1	1
2	Chris Barnett	17 / 42	17 / 42	0 / 1	0
2	Ben Rothwell	30 / 50	30 / 50	0 / 0	1

Ben Rothwell

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights16

Chris Barnett

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights6