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Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Ben Rothwell won · KO/TKO R3
Elo1494
Elo1352

Ben RothwellvsBrandon VeraUFC Prediction Result

UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2 · Saturday, August 31, 2013Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA

Official fight result

Ben Rothwell won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 1:54

Style matchupBen Rothwell: Well-roundedvsBrandon Vera: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Ben Rothwell wins(53.8%)

Actual result: Ben Rothwell wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ben Rothwell at -155 American odds

+$65 profit

$165 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Ben Rothwell
Red Corner
VS
Brandon Vera
Blue Corner
-155
(61%)
Vegas Odds
+145
(41%)
1494
Elo
1352
44
Age
48
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'4"
Height
6'3"
198.12 cm
Reach
198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ben Rothwell
oldest →
W
KOvs Stefan Struve · Dec 19
W
vs Ovince Saint Preux · May 20
L
vs Marcin Tybura · Oct 20
W
SUBvs Chris Barnett · May 21
L
KOvs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · Nov 21
latest
Brandon Vera
oldest →
L
KOvs Jon Jones · Mar 10
W
vs Eliot Marshall · Oct 11
L
KOvs Mauricio Rua · Aug 12
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ben RothwellMetricBrandon Vera
3.71
Strikes / min
3.03
4.63
Strikes absorbed / min
2.81
47%
Strike defense
52%
0.68
TDs / 15 min
0.70
70%
Takedown defense
59%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.92Δ 1.14 — meaningful gap+0.22

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1483Strikes17.2 vs 30.8Takedowns1.4 vs 0.5Sub Atts0.40 vs 0.13Form-0.4 vs -0.4
Ben RothwellBrandon Vera

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Ben Rothwell(10 fights)Brandon Vera(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +141.7|Blue -141.7
Recent Form
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red -0.8|Blue +0.8
Grappler Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff
Red -168.0|Blue +168.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ben RothwellTargetBrandon Vera

By target zone

40
47% acc · 71%
Head
12
36% acc · 29%
10
91% acc · 18%
Body
18
95% acc · 44%
6
86% acc · 11%
Leg
11
100% acc · 27%

By position

35
47% acc · 63%
Distance
29
59% acc · 71%
21
81% acc · 38%
Clinch
12
86% acc · 29%
0
0% acc
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Ben Rothwell rounds
1
even
1
Brandon Vera rounds
Round 1Brandon Vera edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns0
Control0:00
18Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Even round
Sig. strikes21
Takedowns0
Control0:57
21Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Ben Rothwell edged it
Sig. strikes21
Takedowns0
Control0:43
Knockdowns1
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
56 / 103
Sig Strikes
41 / 63
55%
Sig Str %
58.3%
60 / 107
Total Strikes
47 / 69
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 1
—
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
1:40
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Brandon Vera18 / 2518 / 250 / 00
1Ben Rothwell14 / 3214 / 320 / 00
2Brandon Vera21 / 3323 / 350 / 10
2Ben Rothwell21 / 4221 / 420 / 00
3Brandon Vera2 / 56 / 90 / 00
3Ben Rothwell21 / 2925 / 330 / 00

Ben Rothwell

StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights16

Brandon Vera

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights4