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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Ben Nguyen won · SUB R1

Elo1369

Elo1405

Ben NguyenvsRyan BenoitUFC Prediction Result

UFC 193: Rousey vs Holm · Saturday, November 14, 2015Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

Official fight result

Ben Nguyen won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:35

Style matchupBen Nguyen: Well-roundedvsRyan Benoit: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Ben Nguyen wins(62.5%)

Actual result: Ben Nguyen wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ben Nguyen at -130 American odds

+$77 profit

$177 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ryan Benoit enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Ben Nguyen threatens submissions; Ryan Benoit has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Stance matchup historically favors Ben Nguyen (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Ben Nguyen

Red Corner

Ryan Benoit

Blue Corner

-130

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+110

(48%)

1369

Elo

1405

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'5"

165.1 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ben NguyenL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Louis Smolka · Jul 16

vs Geane Herrera · Nov 16

SUBvs Tim Elliott · Jun 17

SUBvs Jussier Formiga · Feb 18

vs Wilson Reis · Dec 18

latest

Ryan BenoitL3 streak

oldest →

vs Brandon Moreno · Dec 16

KOvs Ashkan Mokhtarian · Nov 17

vs Heili Alateng · Dec 19

vs Tim Elliott · Jul 20

vs Zarrukh Adashev · Jul 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ben NguyenMetricRyan Benoit

3.51

Strikes / min

2.88

3.01

Strikes absorbed / min

3.65

59%

Strike defense

58%

0.25

TDs / 15 min

0.28

63%

Takedown defense

72%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.50Δ 1.27 — meaningful gap-0.77

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ben NguyenRyan Benoit

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ben Nguyen(7 fights)Ryan Benoit(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -35.8|Blue +35.8

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -56.0|Blue +56.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ben NguyenTargetRyan Benoit

By target zone

53% acc · 73%

Head

17% acc · 100%

100% acc · 18%

Body

100% acc · 9%

Leg

By position

56% acc · 45%

Distance

17% acc · 100%

100% acc · 9%

Clinch

63% acc · 45%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ben Nguyen rounds

even

Ryan Benoit rounds

Round 1Ben Nguyen edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control2:17

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

11 / 18

Sig Strikes

1 / 6

61%

Sig Str %

16%

20 / 37

Total Strikes

1 / 6

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:17

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Ryan Benoit	1 / 6	1 / 6	0 / 1	0
1	Ben Nguyen	11 / 18	20 / 37	0 / 0	2

Ben Nguyen

StanceSwitch

Height65.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights7

Ryan Benoit

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights9