← All fights/Event page

Flyweight

3 Rounds

Ben Nguyen won · U-DEC R3

Elo1369

Elo1359

Ben NguyenvsGeane HerreraUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Brunson · Saturday, November 26, 2016Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

Official fight result

Ben Nguyen won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Geane Herrera wins(53.5%)

Actual result: Ben Nguyen wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Geane Herrera at +120 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ben Nguyen has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Ben Nguyen (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Ben Nguyen

Red Corner

Geane Herrera

Blue Corner

-140

(58%)

Vegas Odds

+120

(45%)

1369

Elo

1359

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'5"

165.1 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ben NguyenL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Ryan Benoit · Nov 15

KOvs Louis Smolka · Jul 16

SUBvs Tim Elliott · Jun 17

SUBvs Jussier Formiga · Feb 18

vs Wilson Reis · Dec 18

latest

Geane Herrera

oldest →

vs Ray Borg · Aug 15

KOvs Joby Sanchez · Dec 15

vs Ali Bagautinov · Jun 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ben NguyenMetricGeane Herrera

3.51

Strikes / min

1.51

3.01

Strikes absorbed / min

5.07

59%

Strike defense

52%

0.25

TDs / 15 min

0.83

63%

Takedown defense

38%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.50Δ 4.06 — meaningful gap-3.56

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ben NguyenGeane Herrera

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ben Nguyen(7 fights)Geane Herrera(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +10.5|Blue -10.5

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -25.0|Blue +25.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ben NguyenTargetGeane Herrera

By target zone

35% acc · 71%

Head

16% acc · 73%

62% acc · 17%

Body

80% acc · 18%

86% acc · 11%

Leg

50% acc · 9%

By position

39% acc · 89%

Distance

21% acc · 100%

92% acc · 11%

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Ben Nguyen rounds

even

Geane Herrera rounds

Round 1Ben Nguyen edged it

Sig. strikes39

Takedowns0

Control0:02

Knockdowns1

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:32Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Ben Nguyen edged it

Sig. strikes36

Takedowns0

Control0:00

8Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:06Control

Round 3Ben Nguyen edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control0:00

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

105 / 255

Sig Strikes

22 / 107

41%

Sig Str %

20%

112 / 262

Total Strikes

22 / 107

0 / 1

TDs

1 / 5

TD %

33.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

0:38

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Geane Herrera	7 / 37	7 / 37	0 / 2
1	Ben Nguyen	39 / 79	43 / 83	0 / 1
2	Geane Herrera	8 / 34	8 / 34	1 / 1
2	Ben Nguyen	36 / 85	39 / 88	0 / 0
3	Geane Herrera	7 / 36	7 / 36	0 / 2
3	Ben Nguyen	30 / 91	30 / 91	0 / 0

Ben Nguyen

StanceSwitch

Height65.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights7

Geane Herrera

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights4