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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Belal Muhammad won · SUB R3

Elo1479

Elo1459

Belal MuhammadvsTakashi SatoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier · Saturday, September 7, 2019Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Belal Muhammad won

SUB · Round 3 · 1:55

Model Prediction: Belal Muhammad wins(71.6%)

Actual result: Belal Muhammad wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Belal Muhammad at -390 American odds

+$26 profit

$126 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Belal Muhammad enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Takashi Sato enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Belal Muhammad has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Belal Muhammad has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Takashi Sato (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Belal Muhammad

Red Corner

Takashi Sato

Blue Corner

-390

(80%)

Vegas Odds

+320

(24%)

1479

Elo

1459

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'11"

Height

5'10"

182.88 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Belal MuhammadL3 streak

oldest →

vs Gilbert Burns · May 23

vs Leon Edwards · Jul 24

vs Jack Della Maddalena · May 25

vs Ian Machado Garry · Nov 25

DECvs Gabriel Bonfim · Jun 26

latest

Takashi SatoL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Jason Witt · Jun 20

SUBvs Miguel Baeza · Nov 20

vs Gunnar Nelson · Mar 22

KOvs Bryan Battle · Aug 22

vs Themba Gorimbo · May 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Belal MuhammadMetricTakashi Sato

4.43

Strikes / min

2.21

3.82

Strikes absorbed / min

3.73

55%

Strike defense

44%

2.14

TDs / 15 min

0.76

90%

Takedown defense

60%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.61Δ 2.13 — meaningful gap-1.52

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Belal MuhammadTakashi Sato

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Belal Muhammad(10 fights)Takashi Sato(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +20.0|Blue -20.0

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red +3.4|Blue -3.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +14.0|Blue -14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Belal MuhammadTargetTakashi Sato

By target zone

47% acc · 82%

Head

29% acc · 79%

37% acc · 14%

Body

50% acc · 14%

100% acc · 4%

Leg

100% acc · 7%

By position

43% acc · 86%

Distance

33% acc · 100%

75% acc · 6%

Clinch

100% acc · 8%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Belal Muhammad rounds

even

Takashi Sato rounds

Round 1Belal Muhammad edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns1

Control1:41

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Belal Muhammad edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:20

12Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:38Control

Round 3Belal Muhammad edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns1

Control0:29

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

49 / 106

Sig Strikes

29 / 89

45%

Sig Str %

34%

78 / 148

Total Strikes

34 / 95

2 / 9

TDs

1 / 2

25%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

2:30

Ctrl Time

0:38

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Takashi Sato	9 / 30	9 / 30	0 / 0	0
1	Belal Muhammad	20 / 40	43 / 75	1 / 4	0
2	Takashi Sato	12 / 40	17 / 46	1 / 2	0
2	Belal Muhammad	20 / 44	25 / 50	0 / 3	0
3	Takashi Sato	8 / 19	8 / 19	0 / 0	0
3	Belal Muhammad	9 / 22	10 / 23	1 / 2	1

Belal Muhammad

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights21

Takashi Sato

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights7