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Welterweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Jack Della Maddalena won · U-DEC R5

Elo1479

Elo1506

Belal MuhammadvsJack Della MaddalenaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · Saturday, May 10, 2025Montreal, Quebec, Canada

Official fight result

Jack Della Maddalena won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupBelal Muhammad: WrestlervsJack Della Maddalena: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Jack Della Maddalena wins(69.5%)

Actual result: Jack Della Maddalena wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jack Della Maddalena at +166 American odds

+$166 profit

$266 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Belal Muhammad has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Jack Della Maddalena (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Belal Muhammad

Red Corner

Jack Della Maddalena

Blue Corner

-198

(66%)

Vegas Odds

+166

(38%)

1479

Elo

1506

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'11"

Height

5'11"

182.88 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Belal MuhammadL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Sean Brady · Oct 22

vs Gilbert Burns · May 23

vs Leon Edwards · Jul 24

vs Ian Machado Garry · Nov 25

DECvs Gabriel Bonfim · Jun 26

latest

Jack Della MaddalenaL2 streak

oldest →

vs Bassil Hafez · Jul 23

vs Kevin Holland · Sep 23

KOvs Gilbert Burns · Mar 24

vs Islam Makhachev · Nov 25

KOvs Carlos Prates · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Belal MuhammadMetricJack Della Maddalena

4.43

Strikes / min

5.32

3.82

Strikes absorbed / min

4.24

55%

Strike defense

61%

2.14

TDs / 15 min

0.34

90%

Takedown defense

64%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.61evenly matched on net striking+1.08

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Belal MuhammadJack Della Maddalena

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Belal Muhammad(10 fights)Jack Della Maddalena(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -26.7|Blue +26.7

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red +1.3|Blue -1.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -140.0|Blue +140.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Belal MuhammadTargetJack Della Maddalena

By target zone

119

40% acc · 90%

Head

113

44% acc · 63%

61% acc · 8%

Body

72% acc · 26%

67% acc · 2%

Leg

78% acc · 10%

By position

116

39% acc · 88%

Distance

167

51% acc · 94%

67% acc · 11%

Clinch

69% acc · 6%

100% acc · 2%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Belal Muhammad rounds

even

Jack Della Maddalena rounds

Round 1Jack Della Maddalena edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:04

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Jack Della Maddalena edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:07

30Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes32

Takedowns0

Control0:19

34Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Round 4Belal Muhammad edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns1

Control1:19

33Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:27Control

Round 5Jack Della Maddalena edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns2

Control1:32

53Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:09Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

132 / 318

Sig Strikes

178 / 342

41%

Sig Str %

50.8%

155 / 349

Total Strikes

200 / 364

3 / 9

TDs

0 / 3

33.3%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

3:21

Ctrl Time

0:40

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jack Della Maddalena	28 / 61	28 / 61	0 / 0
1	Belal Muhammad	21 / 49	21 / 49	0 / 1
2	Jack Della Maddalena	30 / 63	30 / 63	0 / 0
2	Belal Muhammad	21 / 63	21 / 63	0 / 3
3	Jack Della Maddalena	34 / 76	35 / 77	0 / 1
3	Belal Muhammad	32 / 79	32 / 79	0 / 0
4	Belal Muhammad	31 / 65	35 / 70	1 / 3
4	Jack Della Maddalena	33 / 59	51 / 77	0 / 0
5	Jack Della Maddalena	53 / 83	56 / 86	0 / 2
5	Belal Muhammad	27 / 62	46 / 88	2 / 2

Belal Muhammad

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights21

Jack Della Maddalena

StanceSwitch

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights9