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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Ian Machado Garry won · U-DEC R3

Elo1479

Elo1541

Ian Machado Garry editorial illustration

Belal MuhammadvsIan Machado GarryUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · Saturday, November 22, 2025Doha, Qatar

Official fight result

Ian Machado Garry won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupBelal Muhammad: WrestlervsIan Machado Garry: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Ian Machado Garry wins(73.4%)

Actual result: Ian Machado Garry wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ian Machado Garry at -290 American odds

+$34 profit

$134 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Belal Muhammad

Red Corner

Ian Machado Garry

Blue Corner

+235

(30%)

Vegas Odds

-290

(74%)

1479

Elo

1541

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'3"

182.88 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Belal MuhammadL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Sean Brady · Oct 22

vs Gilbert Burns · May 23

vs Leon Edwards · Jul 24

vs Jack Della Maddalena · May 25

DECvs Gabriel Bonfim · Jun 26

latest

Ian Machado Garry

oldest →

vs Neil Magny · Aug 23

vs Geoff Neal · Feb 24

vs Michael Page · Jun 24

vs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Dec 24

vs Carlos Prates · Apr 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Belal MuhammadMetricIan Machado Garry

4.43

Strikes / min

4.78

3.82

Strikes absorbed / min

2.86

55%

Strike defense

52%

2.14

TDs / 15 min

0.92

90%

Takedown defense

80%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.61Δ 1.31 — meaningful gap+1.92

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Belal MuhammadIan Machado Garry

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Belal Muhammad(10 fights)Ian Machado Garry(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -61.6|Blue +61.6

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red +1.3|Blue -1.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -14.0|Blue +14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Belal MuhammadTargetIan Machado Garry

By target zone

36% acc · 80%

Head

36% acc · 49%

89% acc · 14%

Body

67% acc · 14%

75% acc · 5%

Leg

96% acc · 38%

By position

40% acc · 93%

Distance

49% acc · 92%

50% acc · 7%

Clinch

86% acc · 8%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Belal Muhammad rounds

even

Ian Machado Garry rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:40

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Ian Machado Garry edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control1:49

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

Round 3Ian Machado Garry edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control1:06

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:33Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

56 / 139

Sig Strikes

72 / 141

39%

Sig Str %

50.7%

97 / 197

Total Strikes

96 / 167

0 / 7

TDs

0 / 2

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

3:35

Ctrl Time

0:39

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Ian Machado Garry	27 / 53	31 / 57	0 / 0
1	Belal Muhammad	24 / 57	30 / 69	0 / 1
2	Ian Machado Garry	20 / 39	35 / 56	0 / 1
2	Belal Muhammad	11 / 33	28 / 58	0 / 3
3	Ian Machado Garry	25 / 49	30 / 54	0 / 1
3	Belal Muhammad	21 / 49	39 / 70	0 / 3

Belal Muhammad

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights21

Ian Machado Garry

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights8