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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Belal Muhammad won · U-DEC R5

Elo1479

Elo1466

Belal MuhammadvsGilbert BurnsUFC Prediction Result

UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · Saturday, May 6, 2023Newark, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Belal Muhammad won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupBelal Muhammad: WrestlervsGilbert Burns: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Belal Muhammad wins(69.4%)

Actual result: Belal Muhammad wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Belal Muhammad at +128 American odds

+$128 profit

$228 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Belal Muhammad enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Gilbert Burns enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Belal Muhammad has 37pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Belal Muhammad

Red Corner

Gilbert Burns

Blue Corner

+128

(44%)

Vegas Odds

-152

(60%)

1479

Elo

1466

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'10"

182.88 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Belal MuhammadL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Sean Brady · Oct 22

vs Leon Edwards · Jul 24

vs Jack Della Maddalena · May 25

vs Ian Machado Garry · Nov 25

DECvs Gabriel Bonfim · Jun 26

latest

Gilbert BurnsL4 streak

oldest →

vs Jorge Masvidal · Apr 23

KOvs Jack Della Maddalena · Mar 24

vs Sean Brady · Sep 24

KOvs Michael Morales · May 25

KOvs Mike Malott · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Belal MuhammadMetricGilbert Burns

4.43

Strikes / min

3.16

3.82

Strikes absorbed / min

3.68

55%

Strike defense

52%

2.14

TDs / 15 min

2.04

90%

Takedown defense

53%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.61Δ 1.13 — meaningful gap-0.52

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Belal MuhammadGilbert Burns

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Belal Muhammad(10 fights)Gilbert Burns(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +13.5|Blue -13.5

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +168.0|Blue -168.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Belal MuhammadTargetGilbert Burns

By target zone

38% acc · 70%

Head

36% acc · 43%

95% acc · 30%

Body

81% acc · 16%

100% acc · 1%

Leg

94% acc · 41%

By position

132

47% acc · 100%

Distance

55% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Belal Muhammad rounds

even

Gilbert Burns rounds

Round 1Belal Muhammad edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:00

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Belal Muhammad edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:00

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Belal Muhammad edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 4Belal Muhammad edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 5Belal Muhammad edged it

Sig. strikes42

Takedowns0

Control0:00

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

132 / 283

Sig Strikes

81 / 147

45.6%

Sig Str %

56.2%

132 / 283

Total Strikes

81 / 147

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 4

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Gilbert Burns	15 / 31	15 / 31	0 / 1
1	Belal Muhammad	19 / 39	19 / 39	0 / 0
2	Gilbert Burns	15 / 28	15 / 28	0 / 0
2	Belal Muhammad	18 / 51	18 / 51	0 / 0
3	Gilbert Burns	14 / 22	14 / 22	0 / 0
3	Belal Muhammad	25 / 59	25 / 59	0 / 0
4	Belal Muhammad	28 / 54	28 / 54	0 / 0
4	Gilbert Burns	16 / 23	16 / 23	0 / 2
5	Gilbert Burns	21 / 43	21 / 43	0 / 1
5	Belal Muhammad	42 / 80	42 / 80	0 / 0

Belal Muhammad

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights21

Gilbert Burns

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights24