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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Geoff Neal won · U-DEC R3

Elo1479

Elo1478

Belal MuhammadvsGeoff NealUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw · Saturday, January 19, 2019Brooklyn, New York, USA

Official fight result

Geoff Neal won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupBelal Muhammad: WrestlervsGeoff Neal: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Belal Muhammad wins(63.3%)

Actual result: Geoff Neal wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Belal Muhammad at +170 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Belal Muhammad enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Geoff Neal (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Belal Muhammad

Red Corner

Geoff Neal

Blue Corner

+170

(37%)

Vegas Odds

-200

(67%)

1479

Elo

1478

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'11"

Height

5'11"

182.88 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Belal MuhammadL3 streak

oldest →

vs Gilbert Burns · May 23

vs Leon Edwards · Jul 24

vs Jack Della Maddalena · May 25

vs Ian Machado Garry · Nov 25

DECvs Gabriel Bonfim · Jun 26

latest

Geoff NealL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Mar 23

vs Ian Machado Garry · Feb 24

KOvs Rafael Dos Anjos · Oct 24

KOvs Carlos Prates · Aug 25

KOvs Uros Medic · Feb 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Belal MuhammadMetricGeoff Neal

4.43

Strikes / min

5.02

3.82

Strikes absorbed / min

5.50

55%

Strike defense

57%

2.14

TDs / 15 min

0.54

90%

Takedown defense

87%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.61Δ 1.09 — meaningful gap-0.48

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Belal MuhammadGeoff Neal

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Belal Muhammad(10 fights)Geoff Neal(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +1.4|Blue -1.4

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red +2.7|Blue -2.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +99.0|Blue -99.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Belal MuhammadTargetGeoff Neal

By target zone

24% acc · 62%

Head

34% acc · 86%

53% acc · 29%

Body

80% acc · 11%

86% acc · 10%

Leg

100% acc · 3%

By position

31% acc · 94%

Distance

34% acc · 77%

36% acc · 6%

Clinch

61% acc · 15%

Ground

50% acc · 7%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Belal Muhammad rounds

even

Geoff Neal rounds

Round 1Geoff Neal edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:14

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:30Control

Round 2Geoff Neal edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:05

29Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Geoff Neal edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control0:03

Knockdowns0

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:26Control

2Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

63 / 204

Sig Strikes

71 / 190

29.7%

Sig Str %

37%

64 / 205

Total Strikes

71 / 190

0 / 7

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:22

Ctrl Time

0:56

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Geoff Neal	16 / 47	16 / 47	0 / 0
1	Belal Muhammad	11 / 41	11 / 41	0 / 2
2	Geoff Neal	29 / 69	29 / 69	0 / 0
2	Belal Muhammad	23 / 83	24 / 84	0 / 3
3	Geoff Neal	26 / 74	26 / 74	0 / 0
3	Belal Muhammad	29 / 80	29 / 80	0 / 2

Belal Muhammad

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights21

Geoff Neal

StanceSouthpaw

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights14