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Welterweight

5 Rounds

Gabriel Bonfim won · Decision R5

Elo1479

Elo1565

Belal MuhammadvsGabriel BonfimUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · Saturday, June 6, 2026Las Vegas, USA

Official fight result

Gabriel Bonfim won

Decision · Round 5 · 5:00

Engine 7.0 was correct

Pre-fight pick: Gabriel Bonfim

Style matchupBelal Muhammad: WrestlervsGabriel Bonfim: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Gabriel Bonfim wins(54.0%)

Actual result: Gabriel Bonfim wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gabriel Bonfim enters on a 4-fight win streak.

Tale of the Tape

Belal Muhammad

Red Corner

Gabriel Bonfim

Blue Corner

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Vegas Odds

—

1479

Elo

1565

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'1"

182.88 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Belal MuhammadL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Sean Brady · Oct 22

vs Gilbert Burns · May 23

vs Leon Edwards · Jul 24

vs Jack Della Maddalena · May 25

vs Ian Machado Garry · Nov 25

latest

Gabriel BonfimW4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Nicolas Dalby · Nov 23

vs Ange Loosa · Jul 24

SUBvs Khaos Williams · Feb 25

vs Stephen Thompson · Jul 25

KOvs Randy Brown · Nov 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Belal MuhammadMetricGabriel Bonfim

4.43

Strikes / min

4.61

3.82

Strikes absorbed / min

3.68

55%

Strike defense

63%

2.14

TDs / 15 min

3.60

90%

Takedown defense

76%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.61evenly matched on net striking+0.93

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Belal Muhammad(10 fights)Gabriel Bonfim(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -85.9|Blue +85.9

Recent Form

Red -1.4|Blue +1.4

Striker Score

Red +1.3|Blue -1.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Layoff

Red -14.0|Blue +14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Belal MuhammadTargetGabriel Bonfim

By target zone

23% acc · 60%

Head

39% acc · 65%

67% acc · 26%

Body

100% acc · 9%

86% acc · 14%

Leg

92% acc · 27%

By position

32% acc · 100%

Distance

126

49% acc · 98%

0% acc

Clinch

100% acc · 2%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Belal Muhammad rounds

even

Gabriel Bonfim rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Gabriel Bonfim edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:00

30Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Gabriel Bonfim edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:08

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 4Gabriel Bonfim edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:00

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 5Gabriel Bonfim edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:00

35Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

86 / 275

Sig Strikes

128 / 260

32.2%

Sig Str %

48%

86 / 275

Total Strikes

128 / 261

0 / 2

TDs

0 / 1

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:08

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Gabriel Bonfim	14 / 37	14 / 37	0 / 0
1	Belal Muhammad	13 / 36	13 / 36	0 / 0
2	Gabriel Bonfim	30 / 60	30 / 60	0 / 1
2	Belal Muhammad	20 / 54	20 / 54	0 / 0
3	Gabriel Bonfim	23 / 50	23 / 51	0 / 0
3	Belal Muhammad	14 / 39	14 / 39	0 / 2
4	Belal Muhammad	17 / 65	17 / 65	0 / 0
4	Gabriel Bonfim	26 / 53	26 / 53	0 / 0
5	Gabriel Bonfim	35 / 60	35 / 60	0 / 0
5	Belal Muhammad	22 / 81	22 / 81	0 / 0

The Pick

Vegas favorite

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Odds

—

Market-implied probability

No market line yet

Model pick shown for research — not a betting edge.

No Vegas odds available yet.

No market line yet · model 49% (research) · vufc_v4_pure_sklearn_histgb_20260528_113051

🔒 Pick locked Jun 4, 2026, 3:29 PM UTC · never rewritten

Belal Muhammad

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights21

Gabriel Bonfim

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights8