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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Belal Muhammad won · U-DEC

Elo1479

Elo1403

Belal MuhammadvsDhiego LimaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns · Saturday, February 13, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Belal Muhammad won

U-DEC

Style matchupBelal Muhammad: WrestlervsDhiego Lima: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Belal Muhammad wins(69.6%)

Actual result: Belal Muhammad wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Belal Muhammad at -447 American odds

+$22 profit

$122 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Belal Muhammad enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Belal Muhammad has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Belal Muhammad

Red Corner

Dhiego Lima

Blue Corner

-447

(82%)

Vegas Odds

+340

(23%)

1479

Elo

1403

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'2"

182.88 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Belal MuhammadL3 streak

oldest →

vs Gilbert Burns · May 23

vs Leon Edwards · Jul 24

vs Jack Della Maddalena · May 25

vs Ian Machado Garry · Nov 25

DECvs Gabriel Bonfim · Jun 26

latest

Dhiego Lima

oldest →

vs Yushin Okami · Apr 18

KOvs Chad Laprise · Dec 18

vs Court McGee · Apr 19

vs Luke Jumeau · Oct 19

KOvs Matt Brown · Jun 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Belal MuhammadMetricDhiego Lima

4.43

Strikes / min

3.12

3.82

Strikes absorbed / min

3.88

55%

Strike defense

58%

2.14

TDs / 15 min

1.26

90%

Takedown defense

73%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.61Δ 1.37 — meaningful gap-0.76

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Belal MuhammadDhiego Lima

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Belal Muhammad(10 fights)Dhiego Lima(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +76.6|Blue -76.6

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red +1.7|Blue -1.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -259.0|Blue +259.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Belal MuhammadTargetDhiego Lima

By target zone

109

47% acc · 84%

Head

17% acc · 38%

65% acc · 16%

Body

89% acc · 25%

0% acc

Leg

93% acc · 38%

By position

118

48% acc · 91%

Distance

34% acc · 100%

69% acc · 9%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Belal Muhammad rounds

even

Dhiego Lima rounds

Round 1Belal Muhammad edged it

Sig. strikes42

Takedowns0

Control0:15

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Belal Muhammad edged it

Sig. strikes38

Takedowns0

Control0:35

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Belal Muhammad edged it

Sig. strikes49

Takedowns1

Control1:52

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

129 / 264

Sig Strikes

69 / 203

48.7%

Sig Str %

34%

136 / 284

Total Strikes

70 / 206

1 / 10

TDs

0 / 1

6.7%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:42

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Dhiego Lima	19 / 69	19 / 69	0 / 0
1	Belal Muhammad	42 / 93	42 / 94	0 / 2
2	Dhiego Lima	25 / 76	25 / 76	0 / 0
2	Belal Muhammad	38 / 79	39 / 83	0 / 3
3	Dhiego Lima	25 / 58	26 / 61	0 / 1
3	Belal Muhammad	49 / 92	55 / 107	1 / 5

Belal Muhammad

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights21

Dhiego Lima

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights11