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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Belal Muhammad won · U-DEC R3

Elo1479

Elo1492

Belal MuhammadvsChance RencountreUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Moraes · Friday, June 1, 2018Utica, New York, USA

Official fight result

Belal Muhammad won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Belal Muhammad wins(74.8%)

Actual result: Belal Muhammad wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Belal Muhammad at -450 American odds

+$22 profit

$122 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Belal Muhammad enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Belal Muhammad has 74pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Chance Rencountre (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Belal Muhammad

Red Corner

Chance Rencountre

Blue Corner

-450

(82%)

Vegas Odds

+360

(22%)

1479

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'11"

Height

6'2"

182.88 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Belal MuhammadL3 streak

oldest →

vs Gilbert Burns · May 23

vs Leon Edwards · Jul 24

vs Jack Della Maddalena · May 25

vs Ian Machado Garry · Nov 25

DECvs Gabriel Bonfim · Jun 26

latest

Chance Rencountre

oldest →

SUBvs Kyle Stewart · Jan 19

vs Ismail Naurdiev · Jul 19

KOvs Lyman Good · Nov 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Belal MuhammadMetricChance Rencountre

4.43

Strikes / min

1.10

3.82

Strikes absorbed / min

3.62

55%

Strike defense

49%

2.14

TDs / 15 min

1.35

90%

Takedown defense

16%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.61Δ 3.13 — meaningful gap-2.52

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Belal MuhammadChance Rencountre

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Belal Muhammad(10 fights)Chance Rencountre(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -12.7|Blue +12.7

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red -46.8|Blue +46.8

Grappler Score

Red -49.7|Blue +49.7

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Belal MuhammadTargetChance Rencountre

By target zone

45% acc · 64%

Head

8% acc · 50%

73% acc · 11%

Body

21% acc · 19%

85% acc · 24%

Leg

71% acc · 31%

By position

52% acc · 93%

Distance

13% acc · 100%

0% acc

Clinch

100% acc · 7%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Belal Muhammad rounds

even

Chance Rencountre rounds

Round 1Belal Muhammad edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:00

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Belal Muhammad edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns1

Control0:19

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Belal Muhammad edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns2

Control1:43

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

70 / 130

Sig Strikes

16 / 123

53.3%

Sig Str %

12.7%

88 / 149

Total Strikes

16 / 123

3 / 4

TDs

0 / 3

75%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:02

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Chance Rencountre	7 / 51	7 / 51	0 / 2	0
1	Belal Muhammad	21 / 45	21 / 45	0 / 0	0
2	Chance Rencountre	4 / 39	4 / 39	0 / 1	0
2	Belal Muhammad	29 / 48	31 / 50	1 / 2	0
3	Chance Rencountre	5 / 33	5 / 33	0 / 0	0
3	Belal Muhammad	20 / 37	36 / 54	2 / 2	1

Belal Muhammad

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights21

Chance Rencountre

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights4