← All fights/Event page

Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Jean Matsumoto won · Decision R3

Elo1470

Elo1518

Bekzat AlmakhanvsJean MatsumotoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres · Saturday, June 27, 2026Baku, Azerbaijan

Official fight result

Jean Matsumoto won

Decision · Round 3 · 5:00

Engine 7.0 was wrong

Pre-fight pick: Bekzat Almakhan

Model Prediction: Jean Matsumoto wins(62.1%)

Actual result: Jean Matsumoto wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jean Matsumoto has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Jean Matsumoto has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Bekzat Almakhan

Red Corner

Jean Matsumoto

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1470

Elo

1518

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'6"

172.72 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Bekzat Almakhan

oldest →

vs Umar Nurmagomedov · Mar 24

KOvs Brad Katona · May 25

vs Aleksandre Topuria · Nov 25

latest

Jean Matsumoto

oldest →

SUBvs Dan Argueta · Apr 24

vs Brad Katona · Oct 24

vs Rob Font · Feb 25

vs Miles Johns · Aug 25

vs Farid Basharat · Feb 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Bekzat AlmakhanMetricJean Matsumoto

1.61

Strikes / min

5.37

3.73

Strikes absorbed / min

5.41

36%

Strike defense

47%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

3.00

41%

Takedown defense

56%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.12Δ 2.08 — meaningful gap-0.04

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Bekzat Almakhan(4 fights)Jean Matsumoto(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -48.3|Blue +48.3

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Layoff

Red +77.0|Blue -77.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Bekzat AlmakhanTargetJean Matsumoto

By target zone

40% acc · 86%

Head

25% acc · 56%

90% acc · 13%

Body

52% acc · 14%

100% acc · 1%

Leg

75% acc · 30%

By position

42% acc · 94%

Distance

33% acc · 89%

100% acc · 6%

Clinch

43% acc · 8%

Ground

75% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Bekzat Almakhan rounds

even

Jean Matsumoto rounds

Round 1Bekzat Almakhan edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:02

Knockdowns1

20Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:37Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Jean Matsumoto edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control0:00

33Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:32Control

Round 3Jean Matsumoto edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:00

26Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:29Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

69 / 159

Sig Strikes

79 / 229

44.7%

Sig Str %

34.3%

70 / 160

Total Strikes

89 / 241

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 10

—

TD %

25%

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

1:38

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jean Matsumoto	20 / 52	25 / 57	1 / 4
1	Bekzat Almakhan	21 / 37	21 / 37	0 / 0
2	Jean Matsumoto	33 / 95	35 / 97	0 / 4
2	Bekzat Almakhan	28 / 65	29 / 66	0 / 0
3	Jean Matsumoto	26 / 82	29 / 87	1 / 2
3	Bekzat Almakhan	20 / 57	20 / 57	0 / 0

The Pick

Vegas favorite

—

Odds

—

Market-implied probability

No market line yet

Model pick shown for research — not a betting edge.

No Vegas odds available yet.

No market line yet · model 54% (research) · vufc_v4_pure_sklearn_histgb_20260528_113051

🔒 Pick locked Jun 4, 2026, 3:29 PM UTC · never rewritten

Bekzat Almakhan

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights4

Jean Matsumoto

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights6