Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Aleksandre Topuria won · U-DEC R3

Elo1470

Elo1525

Bekzat AlmakhanvsAleksandre TopuriaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · Saturday, November 22, 2025Doha, Qatar

Official fight result

Aleksandre Topuria won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Aleksandre Topuria wins(67.4%)

Actual result: Aleksandre Topuria wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Aleksandre Topuria at -138 American odds

+$72 profit

$172 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Aleksandre Topuria has 32pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Aleksandre Topuria has 59pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Bekzat Almakhan

Red Corner

Aleksandre Topuria

Blue Corner

+118

(46%)

Vegas Odds

-138

(58%)

1470

Elo

1525

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'7"

172.72 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Bekzat Almakhan

oldest →

vs Umar Nurmagomedov · Mar 24

KOvs Brad Katona · May 25

DECvs Jean Matsumoto · Jun 26

latest

Aleksandre Topuria

oldest →

vs Colby Thicknesse · Feb 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Bekzat AlmakhanMetricAleksandre Topuria

1.61

Strikes / min

2.93

3.73

Strikes absorbed / min

2.57

36%

Strike defense

68%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

1.50

41%

Takedown defense

100%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.12Δ 2.48 — meaningful gap+0.36

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Bekzat AlmakhanAleksandre Topuria

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Bekzat Almakhan(4 fights)Aleksandre Topuria(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -55.8|Blue +55.8

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -91.0|Blue +91.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Bekzat AlmakhanTargetAleksandre Topuria

By target zone

25% acc · 67%

Head

60% acc · 96%

73% acc · 21%

Body

20% acc · 2%

83% acc · 13%

Leg

100% acc · 2%

By position

33% acc · 97%

Distance

57% acc · 94%

50% acc · 3%

Clinch

50% acc · 2%

0% acc

Ground

100% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Bekzat Almakhan rounds

even

Aleksandre Topuria rounds

Round 1Aleksandre Topuria edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:00

17Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:40Control

Round 2Aleksandre Topuria edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:00

15Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:05Control

Round 3Aleksandre Topuria edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:01

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:35Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

39 / 119

Sig Strikes

47 / 81

33%

Sig Str %

57.3%

42 / 122

Total Strikes

55 / 89

0 / 1

TDs

2 / 7

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:01

Ctrl Time

2:20

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Aleksandre Topuria	17 / 28	23 / 34	1 / 1
1	Bekzat Almakhan	12 / 39	14 / 41	0 / 0
2	Aleksandre Topuria	15 / 26	16 / 27	1 / 2
2	Bekzat Almakhan	13 / 31	14 / 32	0 / 0
3	Aleksandre Topuria	15 / 27	16 / 28	0 / 4
3	Bekzat Almakhan	14 / 49	14 / 49	0 / 1

Bekzat Almakhan

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights4

Aleksandre Topuria

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights2