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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Bec Rawlings won · SUB R1

Elo1365

Elo1355

Bec RawlingsvsLisa EllisUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Hunt · Saturday, May 9, 2015Adelaide, South Australia, Australia

Official fight result

Bec Rawlings won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:09

Style matchupBec Rawlings: Pressure fightervsLisa Ellis: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Bec Rawlings wins(54.7%)

Actual result: Bec Rawlings wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Bec Rawlings at -220 American odds

+$45 profit

$145 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Bec Rawlings enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Bec Rawlings threatens submissions; Lisa Ellis has lost 100% of fights by sub.
Bec Rawlings has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Bec Rawlings

Red Corner

Lisa Ellis

Blue Corner

-220

(69%)

Vegas Odds

+180

(36%)

1365

Elo

1355

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'4"

162.56 cm

Reach

157.48 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Bec RawlingsL4 streak

oldest →

DECvs Seohee Ham · Mar 16

KOvs Paige VanZant · Aug 16

vs Tecia Torres · Feb 17

vs Jessica-Rose Clark · Nov 17

vs Ashlee Evans-Smith · Apr 18

latest

Lisa Ellis

oldest →

SUBvs Felice Herrig · Dec 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Bec RawlingsMetricLisa Ellis

4.48

Strikes / min

1.68

5.66

Strikes absorbed / min

2.32

57%

Strike defense

57%

0.71

TDs / 15 min

4.19

68%

Takedown defense

50%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.18evenly matched on net striking-0.64

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Bec RawlingsLisa Ellis

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Bec Rawlings(7 fights)Lisa Ellis(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +10.1|Blue -10.1

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Bec RawlingsTargetLisa Ellis

By target zone

49% acc · 81%

Head

43% acc · 86%

80% acc · 19%

Body

33% acc · 14%

Leg

By position

29% acc · 19%

Distance

22% acc · 29%

67% acc · 48%

Clinch

50% acc · 43%

64% acc · 33%

Ground

100% acc · 29%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Bec Rawlings rounds

even

Lisa Ellis rounds

Round 1Bec Rawlings edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control2:13

7Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:18Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

21 / 40

Sig Strikes

7 / 17

52%

Sig Str %

41%

33 / 55

Total Strikes

8 / 18

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 3

—

TD %

33%

Sub Att

Rev

2:13

Ctrl Time

1:18

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Lisa Ellis	7 / 17	8 / 18	1 / 3	0
1	Bec Rawlings	21 / 40	33 / 55	0 / 0	1

Bec Rawlings

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights7

Lisa Ellis

Stance—

Height64.0"

Reach—

Fights2