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Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Ashlee Evans-Smith won · U-DEC R3

Elo1365

Elo1468

Bec RawlingsvsAshlee Evans-SmithUFC Prediction Result

UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta · Saturday, April 7, 2018Brooklyn, New York, USA

Official fight result

Ashlee Evans-Smith won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupBec Rawlings: Pressure fightervsAshlee Evans-Smith: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Bec Rawlings wins(56.4%)

Actual result: Ashlee Evans-Smith wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Bec Rawlings at +170 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Bec Rawlings enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Ashlee Evans-Smith enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Bec Rawlings threatens submissions; Ashlee Evans-Smith has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Bec Rawlings has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Bec Rawlings

Red Corner

Ashlee Evans-Smith

Blue Corner

+170

(37%)

Vegas Odds

-200

(67%)

1365

Elo

1468

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'8"

162.56 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Bec RawlingsL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Lisa Ellis · May 15

DECvs Seohee Ham · Mar 16

KOvs Paige VanZant · Aug 16

vs Tecia Torres · Feb 17

vs Jessica-Rose Clark · Nov 17

latest

Ashlee Evans-SmithL5 streak

oldest →

vs Ketlen Vieira · Apr 17

SUBvs Sarah Moras · Sep 17

vs Andrea Lee · Feb 19

vs Norma Dumont · Nov 20

vs Ailin Perez · Jul 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Bec RawlingsMetricAshlee Evans-Smith

4.48

Strikes / min

4.03

5.66

Strikes absorbed / min

4.59

57%

Strike defense

53%

0.71

TDs / 15 min

0.95

68%

Takedown defense

50%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.18evenly matched on net striking-0.56

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Bec RawlingsAshlee Evans-Smith

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Bec Rawlings(7 fights)Ashlee Evans-Smith(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -103.4|Blue +103.4

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -70.0|Blue +70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Bec RawlingsTargetAshlee Evans-Smith

By target zone

31% acc · 52%

Head

29% acc · 70%

78% acc · 16%

Body

56% acc · 17%

93% acc · 32%

Leg

79% acc · 13%

By position

44% acc · 93%

Distance

101

33% acc · 87%

86% acc · 7%

Clinch

56% acc · 12%

Ground

100% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Bec Rawlings rounds

even

Ashlee Evans-Smith rounds

Round 1Ashlee Evans-Smith edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control0:08

35Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:07Control

Round 2Ashlee Evans-Smith edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control0:01

45Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Ashlee Evans-Smith edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control0:00

36Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

88 / 195

Sig Strikes

116 / 331

45%

Sig Str %

34.7%

89 / 196

Total Strikes

121 / 337

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 4

—

TD %

25%

Sub Att

Rev

0:09

Ctrl Time

0:07

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Ashlee Evans-Smith	35 / 99	40 / 105	1 / 2
1	Bec Rawlings	30 / 60	31 / 61	0 / 0
2	Ashlee Evans-Smith	45 / 124	45 / 124	0 / 2
2	Bec Rawlings	28 / 65	28 / 65	0 / 0
3	Ashlee Evans-Smith	36 / 108	36 / 108	0 / 0
3	Bec Rawlings	30 / 70	30 / 70	0 / 0

Bec Rawlings

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights7

Ashlee Evans-Smith

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights9